[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 13W MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-48W. CONVECTION S OF 4N IS EMBEDDED IN
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 76W S OF 19N MOVING W
10-15 KT. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUOY INDICATES A WIND SHIFT FROM
DUE EAST TO SE FOLLOWING THE WAVE PASSAGE. THE UPPER AIR TIME
SECTION ANALYSIS AT CURACAO INDICATES THE WAVE PASSED THE
STATION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 94W S OF 21N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE PACIFIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N20W 3N30W 2N40W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE AXIS AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL W OF
32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A SFC HIGH IN THE W ATLC REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE GULF PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. E
TO SE 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA...WITH STRONGER
WINDS IN THE SW GULF. INSTABILITY AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
S FLORIDA IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND IN THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA. MODERATE
CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
22N DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. ELSEWHERE IN THE
GULF...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT.

CARIBBEAN...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ALOFT...A WEAK RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TOMORROW...ENHANCING CONVECTION IN
THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
PATCHY CLOUDS AND FAIR WEATHER AROUND A 1019 MB SFC HIGH NEAR
30N74W CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE W ATLC...EXCEPT ALONG THE S
FLORIDA COAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN
CUBA AND CENTRAL FLORIDA W OF 77W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
S FLORIDA. FURTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW N OF
THE AREA ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N37W AND CONTINUES WSW TO
26N48W. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
ATLANTIC. ALOFT...DIVERGENCE AROUND AN E/W ELONGATED RIDGE OVER
THE TROPICAL N ATLC IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. NEAR
ZONAL FLOW S OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS MAINTAINING STABLE CONDITIONS
IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC S OF 22N.

$$
WADDINGTON






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