[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090612
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 13W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE REMAINS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION REVEALS THE WAVE IS FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED AND REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE MOISTURE
SURGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IS
FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 42W-48W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE
COMPUTER MODELS TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THU.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 73W S OF 19N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE STILL PORTRAYS AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL
SIGNATURE HOWEVER ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER GUATEMALA AND S MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG
92W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...AND IS HELPING TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE S PORTION OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRES CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO ANGEL
MEXICO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N30W 8N42W 4N50W ENTERING
FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 24W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 25W-35W...AND FROM EQ-3N
BETWEEN 32W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N69W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT E TO SE WINDS
DOMINATE FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS NOTED EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 95W PRODUCING NWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER BIMINI NEAR 26N79W
PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA E OF 95W. EXPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S
OF 24N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO DRIFT W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INLAND THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND
CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N69W .
FURTHER E THE BASE OF A COLD FRONT IS FROM 32N41W TO 27N50W
DISSIPATING TO 27N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC S OF THE FRONT N OF 26N BETWEEN 36W-45W. A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG
32N25W 19N48W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL A WELL
DEFINED LOW IS CENTERED OVER BIMINI NEAR 26N79W. CYCLONIC FLOW
IS W OF 74W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-74W. A LARGE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W.
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE
TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AT 15N25W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 40W.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net