[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 13W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE REMAINS OBSERVED IN SAT IMAGERY
WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION REVEALS THE WAVE IS FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED AND REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE MOISTURE
SURGE. SAT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS ON THE INCREASE
MAINLY EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 40W-43W. THIS WAVE IS
FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
EARLY THU.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 70W S OF 18N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IS
BECOMING LESS DEFINED IN THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. COMPUTER
MODELS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE CROSSING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AFFECTING JAMAICA TOMORROW.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER GUATEMALA AND WESTERN YUCATAN WITH AXIS
ALONG 90W/91W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...AND IS
HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N25W 7N38W 6N44W ENTERING
FRESH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150-180 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SFC TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST AND EXTENDS FROM
24N98W TO NEAR VERACRUZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND CIUDAD VICTORIA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS MOVING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO TO THE BIG BEND AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE NE COAST OF
FLORIDA. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH AND THE TROUGH IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE GULF. A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM 1550 UTC SHOWED
WINDS OF 15 KT OVER THE GULF W OF 93W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DOMINATES THE WESTERN GULF
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW PORTION WHERE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND.

CARIBBEAN...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERS THE BASIN WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
STRONG TSTMS OVER EASTERN CUBA. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ALSO
AFFECTING THE REGION. ONE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE
SECOND ONE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
FOR DETAILS. A SFC TROUGH...PROBABLY REFLECTION OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND EXTREME E CUBA
MAINTAINING THE AREA OF STRONG TSTMS OVER E CUBA. ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN WHERE NWLY WINDS ARE SWEEPING IN A DRIER
AIRMASS FROM THE GULF. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN LIKELY DUE TO THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW COMBINED
WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS USUAL
JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE AN EARLIER HIGH
RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS SHOWED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT.
HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH E TRADE WINDS THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

ATLANTIC...
THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN IN SOUTH FLORIDA. A 1021 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. ANOTHER 1021
MB HIGH CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31N69W. A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
31N44W THEN CONTINUES MAINLY WWD THROUGH 29N50W TO 30N57W.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 38W-42W. PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A
1030 MB SFC HIGH SITUATED N OF THE AZORES. IN THE DEEP TROPICS
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDING WWD TO ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR 10N41W.
THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W.

$$
COBB



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