[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 13W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED IN SAT IMAGERY...
WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION REVEALS THE WAVE IS THE LEADING
EDGE OF A LARGE MOISTURE SURGE. VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION IS ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST SIDE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 38W-41W. SCATTRED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS AND WITHIN THE ITCZ
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 43W-46W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE
COMPUTER MODELS TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THU.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 18N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER... THE WAVE STILL SHOWS UP IN THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT
AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N66W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE CROSSING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT... AND AFFECTING JAMAICA TOMORROW.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER BELIZE AND WESTERN HONDURAS. IT AXIS IS
ALONG 88W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...AND IS HELPING TO
INDUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HONDURAS AND EL
SALVADOR. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRES CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N25W 7N38W 6N44W ENTERING
FRESH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150-180 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 26W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SFC TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST AND RUNS FROM 23N97W
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SE MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND BETWEEN TAMPICO AND CIUDAD VICTORIA.
LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS SCATTERED TSTMS IN THIS AREA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED ON A 1021 HIGH LOCATED OVER THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA.
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH AND THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. A
QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1300 UTC SHOWED WIND BARS OF 15 TO 20 KT
OVER THE SAME AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO DOMINATES THE WESTERN GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION
ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF COAST WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH IS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED
OVER THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW PORTION WHERE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND.

CARIBBEAN...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERS ALMOST THE ENTIRE BASIN. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST
SOUTH OF CUBA. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE REGION.
ONE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SECOND ONE IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. A SFC
TROUGH...PROBABLY REFLECTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE
IS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ASSISTING IN THE
FORMATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SEEN OVER THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE NWLY WINDS ARE BRING A DRIER
AIRMASS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
LIKELY DUE TO THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW COMBINED WITH A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS USUAL JUST
OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWED
ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN
FRESH E TRADE WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

ATLANTIC...
THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THOSE
ISLANDS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NW
BAHAMAS AND EVENTUALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN IN SOUTH FLORIDA. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY
DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N46W THEN CONTINUES MAINLY WWD
TO 27N57W. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 38W-50W.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM A 1029 SFC HIGH SITUATED N OF THE AZORES. IN THE TROPICS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDING WWD TO ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR 9N41W.
THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W.

$$
GR








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