[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 11W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH THE MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PEAK MOISTURE CURVATURE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 6N25W TO 9N38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 64W S OF 19N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION INDICATES THE PEAK MOISTURE
CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 85W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MASKING ANY
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE POSITION IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N9W 2N27W 6N39W 6N54W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 26W AND FROM 7N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 38W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NNW TO OVER S TEXAS
COVERING THE W GULF W OF 92W WHILE A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE W
ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SW GULF GIVING THE AREA ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE/STRONG SE
SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W CUBA
HAVE MOVED INTO THE SE GULF S OF 27N FROM 81W-85W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS MOST OF THE GULF GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE THE AREA CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF
15N FROM THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO PUERTO RICO WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER E
CUBA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA...
JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA AND ARE MOVING OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WITH THE UPPER FLOW. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
VENEZUELA COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE THE LESSER ANTILLES
WHILE THE S CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
AND PROVIDING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM THE YUCATAN NEAR 19N87W 16N83W TO
15N67W AND ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE ATLC CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN MODERATE/STRONG E TRADES ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS NEAR
25N74W AND COVERS A BROAD AREA W OF 65W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
23N70W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER E CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AS
WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. AT THE SURFACE A
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N79W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY DIGGING S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N
BETWEEN 40W-60W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG THE N
PERIPHERY OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N57W TO 31N68W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS BRINGING DENSE CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO THE AREA N OF 26N FROM 44W-55W. THE E ATLC REMAINS RATHER
TRANQUIL DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE AREA ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N30W TO 24N42W. THE
TYPICAL E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM
OFF AFRICA S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 50W AND IS
PROVIDING DRY/STABLE AIR OVER THE E ATLC.

$$
WALLACE





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