[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY TILTED TO THE NE FROM 3N27W TO 12N25W
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ILL-DEFINED AND
WAS RELOCATED BASED ON THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION ALONG THE PEAK
MOISTURE CURVATURE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO DEEP
CONVECTION WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN
54W-60W INCLUDING BARBADOS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
TRINIDAD/TOBAGO AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 80W S OF 17N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND BENEATH AN UPPER
TROUGH MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE POSITION IS BASED
LARGELY ON CONTINUITY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 5N14W 4N19W 6N25W 4N32W INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN
THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 11W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 5N31W
5N44W TO 10N54W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 11W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IN THE GULF IS SEA BREEZE
INDUCED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVING WITHIN 60/75 NM OFF THE COAST FROM FORT
MYERS TO TAMPA AND OVER W CUBA MOVING WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE COAST
INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE
COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 92W. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIVEN BY MODERATE/STRONG E AND SE SURFACE
WINDS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT CONTINUES
TO COVER THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES ARE HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE GULF BUT CONSIST OF AN
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W
GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N95W TO TEXAS BETWEEN HOUSTON AND CORPUS
CHRISTI...AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE E GULF ANCHORED
INLAND OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
MOST OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND IS
RE-ENFORCED BY AN UPPER LOW BETWEEN CUBA AND HAITI MAINTAINING
THE TROUGH TO 13N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA TO W CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S VENEZUELA COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN.
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE ATLC IS MAINTAINING STRONG E TRADES ACROSS
THE AREA. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 75W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER VENEZUELA IS DRAWING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N70W TO ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED INLAND OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA ARE MOVING
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST LINES BEING DRIVEN BY THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 25N70W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA IS TO THE E AND DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 24N66W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N74W TO OVER
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS
RATHER TRANQUIL DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE AREA
ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES AND A WEAKER
1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N74W. NEAR ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ATLC E OF
60W AND N OF 20N. AN E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL
ATLC FROM OFF AFRICA ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 50W
AND IS PROVIDING DRY/STABLE AIR OVER THE NE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE





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