[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY TILTED SW-NE ALONG 29W TO 26W S OF 12W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED AND POSITION IS
PRIMARILY BASED ON CONTINUITY. MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION INDICATES
PEAK MOISTURE ALONG 27W WITH WEAK CURVATURE ALONG 27W/28W.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE AXIS TO 21W FROM 8N-11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W...OR ABOUT 240 NM E OF TOBAGO...S OF
19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW
LEVEL TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 54-59W. THIS CONVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 17N MOVING
W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND BENEATH AN UPPER
TROUGH MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE OR ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION...THUS...THE POSITION IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N20W 5N30W 2N40W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 19W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUE TO COVER THE GULF REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. AN UPPER LOW HAS
FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DIVERGENCE AROUND THE LOW
COUPLED WITH ONSHORE SFC WINDS HAVE GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE TEXAS BORDER
TO VERACRUZ. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND INTO THE SW
GULF WEST OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC IS MAINTAINING STRONG EASTERLY
TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 14N W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 14N IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER VENEZUELA IS SUPPORTING AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N71W TO
PUERTO RICO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING
ANY CONVECTION N OF 17N TO WIDELY ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 56W TO IMPACT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC...
THE W ATLC REMAINS TRANQUIL DUE TO A 1023 MB SFC HIGH NEAR
30N74W. FARTHER EAST... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR 26N67W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 26N BETWEEN 64W-72W. AN ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 25N64W 22N67W TO 20N71W. A BROAD SFC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED
BY A STRONG 1030 MB SFC HIGH SW OF THE AZORES. ALOFT...NEAR
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ATLC EAST OF 57W AND N OF 20N. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PROVIDING DRY/STABLE AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC. IN THE
TROPICS...DIVERGENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER VENEZUELA AND
THE TYPICAL E/W ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
IS CREATING A LINE OF MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG 10N53W 6N47W TO
3N41W WHERE IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.

$$
WADDINGTON





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net