[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 18N IS MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW IS VERY GOOD WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10N. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
43W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W S OF 16N MOVING W
10-15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE BEING MASKED BY UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SO WAVE HAS BEEN LARGELY EXTRAPOLATED WESTWARD. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
INLAND ACROSS SW VENEZUELA AND SIMILAR CONVECTION ACROSS W
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W S OF 19N MOVING W
10 KT. THE MIMIC-TPW CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 82W-85W MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN...THEREFORE THE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 5N23W 3N35W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 9W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF
A LINE FROM 5N34W TO 9N39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WELL INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND S TEXAS ALONG THE N GULF
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SMALL UPPER TROUGH IS
UNDERCUTTING THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR 22N94W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE S GULF INTO THE W CARIBBEAN PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND COUPLED WITH
THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS PRODUCING
MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF.
THE GULF N OF 22N REMAINS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THAT AREA.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 77W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF THE NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS COASTLINES. A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND W
HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS N OF JAMAICA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 76W-78W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS
THROUGH THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA TO NEAR 19N75W. AN UPPER RIDGE
IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS IS GENERATING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 65W-75W AND INTO THE ATLC
WATERS.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING E OF BERMUDA SW
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM
25N71W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N57W TO BEYOND 32N52W.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 64W-74W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
AIDING IN SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY AND EXTENDS FROM 27N61W
22N64W. LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 30N30W
BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR AND HAS NO SURFACE
REFLECTION. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB
QUASI-STATIONARY HIGH SW OF THE AZORES AND LOCATED N OF THE
REGION NEAR 36N33W. TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC WITH AXIS
ALONG 14N.

$$
HUFFMAN




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