[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 18N IS MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW IS VERY GOOD WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10N. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
42W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W/69W S OF 16N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS THE WAVE TO BE BETWEEN TWO
AREAS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND
ACROSS SW VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W/85W S OF 18N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE MIMIC-TPW CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MOSTLY DUE
TO AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN...THEREFORE THE POSITION IS BASED
ON CONTINUITY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N27W 2N40W 3N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 20W-26W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 18W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 7W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WELL INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND S TEXAS ALONG THE N GULF
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SMALL UPPER TROUGH IS
UNDERCUTTING THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA
FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N89W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE S
GULF INTO THE W CARIBBEAN PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
OVER S MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA
INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND COUPLED WITH THE
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE GULF N OF 23N
REMAINS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THUS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THAT AREA.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 76W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOMINATE COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA TO JAMAICA
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF CENTRAL CUBA
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY E OF JAMAICA FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/E
TIP OF CUBA TO NEAR 19N75W. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS
DRAWING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 64W-74W AND INTO THE ATLC
WATERS.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING E OF BERMUDA SW
ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM 24N71W
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE/E TIP OF CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N59W TO
BEYOND 32N53W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 27N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 64W-74W. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N59W 21N62W. LARGE UPPER LOW
COVERS THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 30N30W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
DRY UPPER AIR AND HAS NO SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AND
LOCATED N OF THE REGION NEAR 38N34W. TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL E/W
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS WITH AXIS ALONG
14N.

$$
HUFFMAN




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