[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED ALONG 17N32W 2N35W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. THIS WAVE IS VERY LARGE WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING AN AREA OF OVER 12 DEG OF
LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE
STRUCTURE...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND MAINLY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER.

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 59W/60W S
OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS ORGANIZED AS IT
WAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...IT STILL EXHIBITS A
WEAK INVERTED V-SHAPE IN ITS LOW CLOUD FIELD. 24-H PRES
DIFFERENCES OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE UP TO 1 MB LOWER THAN
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK
WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W S OF 18N MOVING W 15
KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME CHALLENGING TO TRACK. ITS CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG ITS S EDGE OVER
COLOMBIA...AND SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN CLOUD DRIFT
WINDS AND IN EARLIER SHIP OBS. THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH IS SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N
BETWEEN 73W-78W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N20W 4N31W 3N40W 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF 3N
E OF 9W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 13W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING CENTERED OVER S MEXICO IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND STRONG E WINDS IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF LIES ON THE W PERIPHERY
OF CENTRAL ATLC SFC RIDGING WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE E GULF AND MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW
ELSEWHERE. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A SLOW MOVING LARGE
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 25N106W WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING LIES OVER THE W ATLC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING N/NE FLOW WHICH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WATERS N OF
22N...LEADING TO MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE GRADUALLY OVER THE W GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A DISTURBANCE NEAR S MEXICO PULLS N AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS.

CARIBBEAN...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS LIES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN. PART OF THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE NEAR S
MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED BROAD TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
ANOTHER COMPONENT IS AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH CUTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND WRN CUBA. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
HAS ALSO BEEN MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE SW
WATERS...NEAR THE ITCZ...S OF 11N W OF 76W. IN THE E
CARIB...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS JUST PUSHED INTO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC...
MID TO UPPER TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH THE MAIN
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N70W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS
TROUGH IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING FROM BERMUDA TO S GEORGIA. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH LIES ABOUT 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ADDING TO
THE OVERALL TROUGHING IS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR 32N53W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE LOW IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-77W
AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 51W-54W. FARTHER E...THE PATTERN HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 13N50W AND BROAD UPPER TROUGHING LIES
TO ITS NE. AN UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER AFRICA EXTENDING W ALONG 16N
TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS
PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 37N38W
DOMINATES THE PATTERN PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ON ITS
S PERIPHERY.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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