[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021718
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 29W/30W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. VISIBLE IMAGES REVEAL A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WELL
DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED ALONG THE
AXIS NEAR 8N. A ASCAT PASS EARLIER TODAY DEPICTED THE PRESENCE
OF THIS TURNING AT THE SFC. DESPITE THE ORGANIZATION IN
STRUCTURE...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND MAINLY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS THE MORE CLASSIC INVERTED-V CLOUD SHAPE WITH THE
ASSOCIATED PATCHES OF DEEP CLOUDINESS...AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...GROUPED WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO ELY
SHEAR.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 67W S OF
12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WHILE LITTLE SIGNATURE OF THIS WAVE IS
NOTED OVER THE S CARIB...A WESTWARD MOVING BURST OF CONVECTION
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS OVER
WESTERN VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 5N20W 4N34W 2N40W 0N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
13W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 28W-40W AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W
OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SLOW MOVING REMNANTS OF ARTHUR IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND NE/E 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE SPREAD FARTHER N OVER THE S
CENTRAL WATERS S OF 24N E OF 90W...MARKING THE N PERIPHERY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE GYRE THAT THE
REMNANTS OF ARTHUR IS EMBEDDED IN. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IS EXPERIENCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD DRY AIR IN
AN UPPER CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH OVER MEXICO AND
UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. E COAST AND THE E GULF WATERS.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR
28N85W EMBEDDED IN A LARGE RIDGE AXIS THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE
N GULF WATERS. THIS PATTERN IS ALLOWING WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE N WATERS AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN...
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE GYRE THAT CONTAINS ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM CUBA TO SEVERAL HUNDRED NM S OF MEXICO.
WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE IN THE EPAC...AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUE TO AFFECT S MEXICO ...MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 78W. THESE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS/MUDSLIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE OVER
S MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 13N W OF 77W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1030 MB HIGH DOMINATES THE SFC PATTERN CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N40W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MAINLY
MODERATE TRADES ON ITS S PERIPHERY. IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH AN
EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE LOCATED TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN
54W-57W AND IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE S OF 23N BETWEEN 62W-67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OFF THE SE U.S. COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AIDED BY A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 11N48W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO NEAR 32N44W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO NEAR 21N32W AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM
AFRICA ALONG 11N E OF 25W. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS PRODUCING
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER...IN FACT IT IS ENHANCING FAIR WEATHER
IN THE CONFLUENT AREA N OF 13N BETWEEN 29W-42W.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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