[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17.7N
91.1W OR NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO AT
01/2100 UTC MOVING WSW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE MARINE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. PRESENTLY BELIZE...NRN GUATEMALA...AND THE
GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAINS. PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 86W-93W.
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5-10 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. AS ALWAYS IN THESE CASES...FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 16N MOVING
W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT
ALONG THE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 10N. DESPITE THE ORGANIZATION IN
STRUCTURE... CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN
49W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER E VENEZUELA ALONG 62W/63W S OF 12N MOVING
W 15 KT. THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A NARROW MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. WHILE MOST OF THIS WAVE IS
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...THERE COULD BE SOME INFLUENCE OVER
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AS NOTED IN SFC OBS. DEEP CONVECTION IS
MINIMAL.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 3N30W 2N40W 7N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 8W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-8N BETWEEN 23W-28W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 41W-43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN
49W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND AN EMBEDDED 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W IS
OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
AND 5-10 KT WINDS.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
HOWEVER OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N. BROAD CYCLONIC
TURNING COVERS THE SRN GULF DUE TO THE NRN PERIPHERY OF T.D.
ARTHUR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO RIDGING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  EXPECT ARTHUR TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS ARTHUR WEAKEN INLAND.

CARIBBEAN...
ARTHUR IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE.  PATCHES
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FURTHER S
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
74W-78W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA BETWEEN 76W-82W...AND OVER INLAND
HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING MOSTLY
NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF
75W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION W
OF 70W DUE TO ARTHUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N40W DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.
A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W.  AN
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N60W.  A RIDGE IS N
OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-55W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N42W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA



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