[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 18.4N 89.8W ABOUT 96 NM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AT
01/0600 UTC MOVING W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
INLAND THE HEAVIEST WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
OVER S MEXICO. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 19N INLAND
OVER HONDURAS AND W OF 85W TO THE COAST OF BELIZE. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
20N BETWEEN 91W-95W. OUTER BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA AND IN THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N TO OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO S OF 24N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 83W-87W.
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
MIMIC-TPW AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH A MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE TRAILING THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM
1N15W TO 9N19W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. MIMIC-TPW
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS WITH A BROAD SIGNATURE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 42W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY. THE WAVE
REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION S OF 6N TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 55W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 84W S OF 21N MOVING W
10-15 KT BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. THIS WAVE IS BEING ABSORBED AND
INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR AND WILL PROBABLY BE
DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS AT 01/0600 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 4N27W 1N37W 2N45W 1N51W. SEE
TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-45W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO IS GIVING THE
GULF MOSTLY N UPPER FLOW MAINLY N OF 22N. A SMALL MID/UPPER HIGH
IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W WHILE THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE S GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE
GULF MAINLY N OF 23N WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FAR S
GULF EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF/SE
US AND COMBINED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE S GULF AND
CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE WINDS CREATED A FAIRLY
STRONG SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED OFF
SHORE AND ARE NOW FROM 25N-27N E OF 84W TO THE FLORIDA COAST.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN...
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. SEE SPECIAL FEATHERS ABOVE. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM COVERS THE AREA W OF 74W.
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC DIPS S TO OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES W OF PUERTO RICO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA AND A SECOND
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 74W TO FLORIDA WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 58W-74W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N59W TO 28N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 24N60W TO 28N57W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 11N42W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN FEATURES. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC INTO THE SE US AND
N GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ABOVE AND ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
NEAR 34N38W.

$$
WALLACE




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