[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 27W SOUTH OF 22N. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE
PRIMARILY TO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N60W 10N63W 3N65W
MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE LESSER ANTILLES HAD A 3 MB DROP OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. PATCHES OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE MAINLY OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 57W-70W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 20N MOVING W
AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF
COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 81W-84W. ELSEWHERE
...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 18N27W 10N32W 8N40W
11N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 6N-10N BETWEEN
26W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
48W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO S TEXAS
PRODUCING 10-15 KT SLY FLOW. THE SRN GULF S OF 25N HAS MOSTLY
FAIR SKIES. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 83W-92W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA
NEAR 32N87W. NE TO E UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH
TRADE WINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS
FOUND OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N83W.
EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VERY LARGE 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N29W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
28N50W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N52W.  ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N40W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 16N40W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS S OF 27N E OF 50W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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