[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301811
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 16N20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
18W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FURTHER S ALONG
THE ITCZ FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 18W-24W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY BEFORE MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N51W 14N54W 7N56W
MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE ENVELOPE OF SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
AND LOW CLOUDS COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN
40W-64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-64W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOW NOTED WITH
THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 10N23W 7N35W 12N50W
10N63W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 24W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 39W-42W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO S TEXAS
PRODUCING 10-15 KT SLY FLOW. THE SRN GULF S OF 25N HAS MOSTLY
FAIR SKIES. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN
81W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N94W. DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE
UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE NW
GULF FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 92W-94W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER THE N GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER IS
APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADE WINDS COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA NEAR 7N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 77W-79W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W.  DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE UPPER LOW IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM
10N-18N BETWEEN 81W-84W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS W OF 68W. EXPECT... CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE OTHER TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VERY LARGE 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N36W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. THREE OTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOWS ARE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W...31N40W
...AND 30N22W. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 17N42W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 27N E OF
50W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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