[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W.
ANY KIND OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N47W 15N50W 8N52W.
THE ENVELOPE OF SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 39W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA UNDER THE CYCLONE ENVELOPE.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W
SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CENTER MAY BE NEAR 20N70W. EARLIER SHOWERS WERE
ON TOP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE LATEST PRECIPITATION
IS IN SOUTHERN HAITI.

...THE ITCZ...
9N21W 8N30W 13N49W 10N60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN
18W AND 37W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ONE SMALL
CELL OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 9N59W ALONG THE
COASTS OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HUGS THE MEXICO COAST SURROUNDED
BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM JUST
WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA ALONG 90W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST
OF THE 90W RIDGE UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT RUSHES
FROM FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS RUSHING TOWARD
A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND
TROUGH THAT END ON TOP OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...THE NORTHERN HALF OF
GUATEMALA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES
FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA...CURVING NORTHEASTS IN ORDER TO COVER
JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HAITI AND BARELY REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING IN UNISON WITH THE 21N47W TO 8N51W TROPICAL WAVE
EVENTUALLY EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE TROUGH THAT WAS EXTENDING FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N56W. A SECOND CYCLONIC
CENTER IS NEAR 31N42W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THE
31N42W CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE BAHAMAS CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CENTER.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OF 10N WEST
OF 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MIXED IN THE DRY AIR.

$$
MT


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