[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291719
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 16W/17W
SOUTH OF 18N. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 11N17W. THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 15 MPH.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 15W-20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH DISTINCT
LOW CLOUD TURNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SURGE THAT
MOVED OFF AFRICA SEVERAL DAYS AGO WITH AFRICAN DUST E OF THE
WAVE AXIS TO 10W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE E
CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15
KT. THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S MEXICO TO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO S MEXICO
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 92W-95W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N30W 13N48W 10N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 53W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO AND MISSISSIPPI ALONG 33N89W 30N88W 26N91W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN
88W-92W. FURTHER E... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 82W-84W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT
WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF PRODUCING NELY UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF
E OF 92W. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
E GULF W OF 92W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADE
WINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 76W-78W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 80W-84W. A LARGE ERUPTION OF THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO
IN MONTSERRAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING. PLEASE READ THE AFOS/WMO
BULLETIN FVXX22 KNES FOR MORE DETAILS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 68W. EXPECT...
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N60W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER 1025 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N36W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N59W. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 18N41W. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS E OF 55W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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