[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290620
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 15W/16W
SOUTH OF 14N. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 11N. THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 15 MPH. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N41W 11N44W 3N44W
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE MAY REACH THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SHOWERS FROM FIVE HOURS AGO SOUTH OF
14N EAST OF 65W HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART LEAVING SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND DEBRIS CLOUDS.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN THIS VICINITY
MAY BE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
10N17W 8N26W 14N43W 9N52W 10N60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE CLUSTER FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W
AND 30W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W...AND FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A NEW CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N95W IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE EAST OF 90W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE ERUPTION OF THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO IN MONTSERRAT
HAS OCCURRED. PLEASE READ THE AFOS/WMO BULLETIN FVXX22 KNES
FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 16N WEST OF  ONE CYCLONIC
CENTER IS JUST WEST OF JAMAICA...AND A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS
ABOUT 240 NM EAST OF THE FIRST CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER NEAR THE
GULF OF URABA ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...STAYING SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
ANOTHER SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SWEEPS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 27N66W
TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 22N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 26N55W TO 29N52W TO 31N50W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 55W
AND 60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N68W TO AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N71W TO THE WATERS JUST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
13N45W 23N43W TO 32N35W.N UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
31N21W TO 27N21W TO 23N22W IS APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
MT

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net