[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281818
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS SHOWS UP WELL IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SURGE THAT
MOVED OFF AFRICA SEVERAL DAYS AGO WITH AFRICAN DUST E OF THE
WAVE AXIS TO 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 58W-65W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND CONTINUES TO THE E PACIFIC.
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE E PACIFIC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 8N17W 15N40W 10N50W
10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 14W-17W...AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
22W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 31N87W 27N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA. A
WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N92W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER W OF 90W. LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS ARE
NOTED THROUGHOUT THE GULF. THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 28N93W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 89W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 91W. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF W OF 92W DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER IS
APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADE WINDS COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA NEAR
9N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 78W-82W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 78W-80W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N79W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A
RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO
INCLUDE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N44W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 28N52W 23N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIS W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N63W. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 19N36W. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS E OF 55W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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