[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
23W/24W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 15 TO
20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
18.5N46.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 94W S OF
20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 95W-97W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 9N30W 11N47W 8N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 16W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 29W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN
THE VICINITY OF TRINIDAD FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 57W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N93W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS. BESIDES
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 88W-89W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS IS PRODUCING NELY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE
GULF N OF 25N AND E OF 90W. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION DUE TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. FRESH
TRADE WINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 81W-84W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 74W-78W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
FROM 10N-20N E OF 87W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER CUBA...AND FURTHER
S OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N56W.  ANOTHER 1023
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
32N18W. BOTH HIGHS ARE PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF DUST
HAS MOVED OFF W AFRICA IS NOW FROM 5N-25N E OF 40W MOVING W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N62W. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER W AFRICA NEAR 22N12W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH
TO 22N45W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 45W. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT
TOWARDS THE NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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