[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF DOLLY IS ABOUT 110 MILES/
177 KM SOUTH OF EL PASO TEXAS NEAR 30.2N 106.2W AT 26/0900 UTC.
IT IS MOVING NORTH 5 MPH. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH NORTHEAST OF THE REMNANT
LOW CENTER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS. HIGHER
WINDS ARE LIKELY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KWNH FOR MORE DETAILS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND
SECTIONS OF ARIZONA. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF DOLLY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY INTO NEW
MEXICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND SECTIONS OF ARIZONA...WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/46W SOUTH OF 24N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 18.5N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUE TO BE MOVING WESTWARD ON TOP OF THIS
WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE
FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
14N17W 10N25W 9N36W 12N46W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 53W
AND 59W...TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON TOP OF THE 44W/45W TROPICAL
WAVE...AND THAT REACHES NEAR 10N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 26N. CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...ONE OR TWO INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS...COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PART OF THE TROUGH THAT WAS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO. IT HAS SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN
TROUGH THAT STOPS SOMEWHERE NEAR 28N79W A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AN INTERIOR MEXICO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N99W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CELLS FROM 19N TO 20N UP AGAINST
THE MEXICO COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 65W...
ON TOP OF DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD.
THE DRY AIR NOW REACHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WELL EAST OF 60W
TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND ALONG 85W IN NICARAGUA. THE BASE OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR SAINT
CROIX. SOME CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER BIT OF CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE BROAD ATLANTIC TROUGH ALSO REACHES THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ENOUGH TO START SOME SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN COASTAL HAITI.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS PUSHING WESTWARD TO
61W/62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM GRENADA
TO THE ISLANDS IN BETWEEN ST. KITTS AND NEVIS AND ANGUILLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 34N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC
CENTERS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW.
A SEPARATE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALSO NEAR 27N72W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE AREA OF THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE INDIVIDUAL 27N72W CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM A CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 31N27W TO 29N41W TO 22N45W NEAR THE 44W/45W
TROPICAL WAVE...EVENTUALLY TO 10N55W.

$$
MT




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