[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260610
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF DOLLY IS 83 MILES/133 KM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PRESIDIO TEXAS NEAR 30.1N 105.5W AT
26/0300 UTC. IT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 7 MPH WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH DURING SUNDAY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH NORTHEAST
OF THE DISTURBANCE CENTER ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND. HIGHER
WINDS ARE LIKELY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KWNH FOR MORE DETAILS. A FLOOD WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN AREA OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
TEXAS...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.
THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 24N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 19N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER CONTINUE TO BE MOVING WESTWARD ON TOP OF THIS WAVE.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE FROM
19N TO 20N BETWEEN 44W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W.

AN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
14N17W 10N24W 8N37W 12N44W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 25W AND
27W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W...TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA ON TOP OF THE 43W/44W TROPICAL WAVE...AND THAT REACHES
NEAR 10N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 26N. CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...ONE OR TWO INDIVIDUAL CENTERS...
COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF
THE TROUGH THAT WAS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TWENTY FOUR HOURS
AGO AND NOW IT HAS SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN TROUGH THAT STOPS
SOMEWHERE NEAR 28N79W A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AN INTERIOR MEXICO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N99W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE WESTERN PART OF AND/OR JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 65W...
ON TOP OF DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD.
THE DRY AIR NOW REACHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WELL EAST OF 60W
TO AT LEAST 81W. THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR SAINT CROIX. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH IS PUSHING WESTWARD TO 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 40 NM NORTH OF TOBAGO TO GUADELOUPE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 34N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC
CENTERS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW.
A SEPARATE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALSO NEAR 27N72W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE AREA OF THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE INDIVIDUAL 27N72W CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM A CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 31N27W TO 29N41W TO 22N45W NEAR THE 43W/44W TROPICAL
WAVE...EVENTUALLY TO 10N55W.

$$
MT


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