[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ONTO THE 25/1800 UTC SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND IS ALONG 19W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
OBSERVATIONS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL INDICATE THAT WAVE HAS PASSED
THE AREA. HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM DATA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAS ALSO DEPICTED THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO LINGER
ALONG THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 11N-17N.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR
15-20 KT. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
NEAR 18N AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WNW. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
THE WAVE MAY MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
ORGANIZATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE ATLC SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
40W-43W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT ACROSS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE EXTENDS FROM WRN PUERTO RICO TO NORTH
CENTRAL VENEZUELA. WHILE CURRENTLY UNDER STRONG TO MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE ACROSS CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACROSS NRN VENEZUELA AND MOST LIKELY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS CENTRAL GUATEMALA ALONG 90W S OF 16N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE LIES MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION. FOR MORE INFORMATION REFER TO THE ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...TWDEP.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N21W 8N27W 13N36W 13N40W 11N46W TO
INLAND ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N69W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 22W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DOLLY IS STILL GENERATING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. AT
25/2100 UTC...IT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND NEAR 29.9N 105.3W. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING WNW AT 13
MPH. THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE WITH A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W.
GENERALLY LIGHT E-SE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WRN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
NRN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DOMINATE THE ERN GULF THIS EVENING. ALOFT...AN BROAD UPPER
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER NE TEXAS IS PRODUCING NE TO E WINDS
OVER THE N GULF WATERS. THIS IS AIDING IN GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN GULF NE OF A LINE
FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDS TROUGHING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS SRN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WRN CUBA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA ACROSS
WRN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED IN
THIS TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SRN
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS
POSITIONED SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN IMPLIED DRY
STABLE AIR MASS. S-SW FLOW BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES IS DRAWING SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE E PACIFIC REGION INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA..THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WRN CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 38N57W EXTENDS SURFACE RIDGING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WRN ATLC E OF 65W. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING W OF 65W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 27N73W
AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 26N61W PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
21N-27N BETWEEN 57W-64W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE ARE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...MAINLY BETWEEN
45W-57W WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 18N55W. IN THE
ERN ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS E OF 40W ANCHORED ON A 1022
MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N26W.

$$
HUFFMAN


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