[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240612
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY AT 24/0600 UTC IS NEAR 26.7N
98.3W...OR ABOUT 65 NM/120 KM NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING WEST 6 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 100 NM/185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 20 NM TO
40 NM OF THE CENTER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN 95W AND 96W. DOLLY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS
FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREATS WILL
CONTINUE ALSO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ALL THIS IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY EVEN AS THE WINDS OF DOLLY SUBSIDE GRADUALLY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N34W
12N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES IN THIS PART OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ENDING AROUND 23/1945 UTC SHOWED SLIGHT CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD AROUND 55W. THE LATEST SHORTWAVE
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SAME AMOUNT OF SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD NOW AROUND 56W/57W. WE WILL RELATE THE
POSITION OF THIS WAVE TO WHAT WE SEE IN THE IMAGERY.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
WAS OCCURRING IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST FIVE HOURS.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SHOWERS STILL LINGER.

...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 12N23W 6N35W 7N54W 6N58W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 13W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS ON TOP OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
EXPECT RAIN AND WIND AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE
PRESSURE AROUND DOLLY FILLS IN AND IT WEAKENS STEADILY.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM DOLLY FOR
A DISTANCE OF 600 NM TO THE EAST OF DOLLY INTO GULF OF MEXICO.
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM
THE EASTERN U.S.A. REACHING SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A THIN LINE FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 30N78W TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MAINLAND FLORIDA.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHERLY ACROSS FLORIDA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS
AND THE WATERS IN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 24N78W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
CURVES FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF IT CROSSES HONDURAS AND
EVENTUALLY REACHES THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CUBA TO THE WATERS JUST
NORTHEAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W UNDER A SLIGHT AMOUNT
OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N73W TO A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 24N78W
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
BETWEEN 70W AND 71W FROM 26N TO 32N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N63W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND
WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N56W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N53W. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY
AIR. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N54W 24N57W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 33W AND 43W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N17W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
27N31W.

$$
MT


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