[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed Jul 23 17:30:33 CDT 2008
WTUS84 KBRO 232227
HLSBRO
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE DOLLY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
527 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...DOLLY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN WILLACY COUNTY...
.AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES
NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE OR OVER JUST EAST OF RAYMONDVILLE IN WILLACY
COUNTY.
DOLLY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 MPH...BUT TENDS TO
SHOW A WEST WOBBLE. HOWEVER...DOLLY CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND
TAKING HER AWAY FROM THE WARM GULF WATERS THAT FEED THE HURRICANE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE...BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER OF DOLLY...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 970 MB.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO
12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BUT LARGE
BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SHORE LINE THROUGH THE EVENING.
TXZ253>255-240230-
/O.EXT.KBRO.HI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080725T0700Z/
HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
527 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...HURRICANE WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT FRIDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
DOLLY...A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
EASTERN WILLACY COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF DOLLY
ARE 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT
8 MPH. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD FROM DOLLY COVERS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.
THE FOLLOWING ARE PRELIMINARY PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS
DUE TO HURRICANE DOLLY. PORT ISABEL: 57 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70...
HARLINGEN: 44 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 64...BROWNSVILLE: 46 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 64...RINCON: 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 48...BAYVIEW 42 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 54...MCALLEN 26 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 36.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
TORNADO WATCH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH THE CENTER OF DOLLY
MOVING INLAND. AN ESTIMATED SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER LARGE BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO POUND THE BEACHES THROUGH THE EVENING. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS
TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ON SHORELINES CAN EXPECT SOME WATER
INCURSION INTO THEIR HOMES. THOSE IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS
MAY HAVE A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER IN THEIR HOMES...CAUSING MINOR TO
MODERATE DAMAGE. SHORELINE ROADS MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE WITH UP TO TWO
FEET OF WATER ACROSS...EXCEPT THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHICH
COULD HAVE UPWARDS OF 4 FEET OF WATER ACROSS THEM. MODERATE TO
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE...BECOMING MORE LIKELY IF
CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
STRUCTURES ON OR VERY NEAR THE SHORELINE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE LANDFALL LOCATION.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS DOLLY MOVES SLOWLY WEST. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY IN RAIN BANDS THROUGH THE EVENING FROM ARE LIKELY
OVER EASTERN WILLACY BUT WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT AND LIKELY END
BY 6 PM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS HIDALGO
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF
CAMERON AND WILLACY THROUGH AT LEAST 8 PM.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN WILLACY BUT WILL
BECOME LESS FREQUENT AND LIKELY END BY 6 PM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS HIDALGO COUNTY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF CAMERON AND WILLACY THROUGH AT
LEAST 8 PM.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS IS NEAR 100 PERCENT
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS IN EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY TODAY IS FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS
THAT FROM 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF CAMERON AND SOUTHERN WILLACY COUNTIES
INCLUDING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...LAGUNA VISTA AND
LAGUNA HEIGHTS SINCE MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD 6 TO 9 INCHES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND 3 TO 6 INCHES
ESTIMATED ACROSS EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BRING
TOTALS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 24 INCHES
IN PORTIONS OF CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
TO SPREAD WEST INTO HIDALGO COUNTY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH OR AREAL FLOODING IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FIRST AND IN OTHER AREAS
LATER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE
SPECIFIC AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON THE FINAL TRACK OF DOLLY AS SHE MOVES FURTHER WEST.
SHOULD MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR RESACA FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
PERSONS LIVING NEAR OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY. IN THESE AREAS...SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL
OCCUR...AND SOME POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE
IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
WATER LEVELS IN VERY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET.
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RISES BETWEEN 3 AND 5
FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WATER RISES TO NEAR 2 FEET. NUMEROUS
MAIN ROADS WILL BE CLOSED. DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED EXCEPT
FOR EMERGENCIES.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN A POSSIBILITY TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE DOLLY MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HIDALGO...WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 830 PM CDT.
$$
TXZ248>250-252-240230-
/O.EXT.KBRO.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080725T0700Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-
527 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT
FRIDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
RAIN BANDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF DOLLY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
BROOKS...HIDALGO...ZAPATA AND STARR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS BANDS MOVE
THROUGH. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF DOLLY
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER WILLACY COUNTY.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD STOCK THEIR HURRICANE KITS WITH NON PERISHABLE
FOOD IN CASE OF LONG POWER OUTAGES. PEOPLE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS NEED TO CONSIDER AN EVACUATION PLAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT BASED ON EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OR MORE.
...WINDS...
CURRENTLY NORTH WINDS RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 45 MPH WITH STRONGER RAIN BANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS
WILL BE INTERMITTENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS RANGE FROM 40 TO 60
FOR THE ENTIRE WESTERN VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST OVER STARR...JIM HOGG...
ZAPATA AND BROOKS COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING. THESE HEAVY RAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST WITH INTERMITTENT TORRENTIAL RAINS
INTO THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THE EVENT...CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
AREA WIDE FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 12 TO 15 INCHES IN PERSISTENT TORRENTIAL
RAINS NEAR THE EYEWALL OF DOLLY. NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND ARROYOS COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS MID DAY
TODAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE RAINS
FROM DOLLY LINGER.
BY TONIGHT...ALL SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY SURPASS BANK FULL.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST AT LEAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. SOME STREAMS
OR ARROYOS WILL EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY SEVERAL FEET AND MAY FLOOD
NEARBY HOMES. EVACUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
RIVERS IN AFFECTED AREAS WILL RISE...WITH SOME REACHING OR
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. NORMALLY QUICK RISING RIVERS WILL EXCEED
FLOOD STAGE BY SEVERAL FEET...FLOODING HOMES ALONG THE RIVERSIDE.
PASTURES WILL ALSO FLOOD...BUT LIVESTOCK LOSSES SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. SEVERAL SECONDARY ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE WASHED OUT.
DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE OUTER RAIN BANDS CONTINUE
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 830 PM CDT.
$$
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-240230-
/O.CON.KBRO.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
527 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
DOLLY...A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
EASTERN WILLACY COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF DOLLY
ARE 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT
8 MPH. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD FROM DOLLY COVERS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND
OCCASIONAL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THE STRONGEST CORE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
IS CONCENTRATED NEAR ARROYO CITY AND PORT MANSFIELD AND AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE OF
CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO
24 FEET OFFSHORE AND WILL REMAIN AT THESE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
TORNADO WATCH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH THE CENTER OF DOLLY
MOVING INLAND. AN ESTIMATED SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER LARGE BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO POUND THE BEACHES THROUGH THE EVENING. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS
TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ON SHORELINES CAN EXPECT SOME WATER
INCURSION INTO THEIR HOMES. THOSE IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS
MAY HAVE A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER IN THEIR HOMES...CAUSING MINOR TO
MODERATE DAMAGE. SHORELINE ROADS MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE WITH UP TO TWO
FEET OF WATER ACROSS...EXCEPT THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHICH
COULD HAVE UPWARDS OF 4 FEET OF WATER ACROSS THEM. MODERATE TO
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE...BECOMING MORE LIKELY IF
CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
STRUCTURES ON OR VERY NEAR THE SHORELINE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE LANDFALL LOCATION.
...WINDS...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY IS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN LAGUNA
MADRE NEAR THE CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS.
THE STRONGEST CORE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS CONCENTRATED OVER
THE LAGUNA MADRE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD AND OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OFFSHORE. SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 24 FEET OFFSHORE AND
WILL REMAIN AT THESE HEIGHT INTO THIS EVENING.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NEAR 100 PERCENT
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS BAY AND GULF WATERS...WHILE THE
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS FROM 50 TO 100 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAGUNA MADRE. THE PROBABILITY OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FOR THE GULF WATERS OF WILLACY AND CAMERON
COUNTIES WILL RANGE FROM 50 TO 100 PERCENT.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 830 PM.
$$
TXZ251-256-257-240230-
/O.CON.KBRO.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
527 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
DOLLY...A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
EASTERN WILLACY COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF DOLLY
ARE 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT
8 MPH. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD FROM DOLLY COVERS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.
THE FOLLOWING ARE PRELIMINARY PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS
DUE TO HURRICANE DOLLY. PORT ISABEL: 57 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70...
HARLINGEN: 44 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 64...BROWNSVILLE: 46 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 64...RINCON: 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 48...BAYVIEW 42 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 54...MCALLEN 26 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 36.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
TORNADO WATCH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH THE CENTER OF DOLLY
MOVING INLAND. AN ESTIMATED SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER LARGE BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO POUND THE BEACHES THROUGH THE EVENING. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS
TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ON SHORELINES CAN EXPECT SOME WATER
INCURSION INTO THEIR HOMES. THOSE IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS
MAY HAVE A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER IN THEIR HOMES...CAUSING MINOR TO
MODERATE DAMAGE. SHORELINE ROADS MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE WITH UP TO TWO
FEET OF WATER ACROSS...EXCEPT THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHICH
COULD HAVE UPWARDS OF 4 FEET OF WATER ACROSS THEM. MODERATE TO
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE...BECOMING MORE LIKELY IF
CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
STRUCTURES ON OR VERY NEAR THE SHORELINE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE LANDFALL LOCATION.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS DOLLY MOVES SLOWLY WEST. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY IN RAIN BANDS THROUGH THE EVENING FROM ARE LIKELY
OVER EASTERN WILLACY BUT WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT AND LIKELY END
BY 6 PM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS HIDALGO
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF
CAMERON AND WILLACY THROUGH AT LEAST 8 PM.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN WILLACY BUT WILL
BECOME LESS FREQUENT AND LIKELY END BY 6 PM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS HIDALGO COUNTY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF CAMERON AND WILLACY THROUGH AT
LEAST 8 PM.
POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES WILL LIKELY BE
DESTROYED. OTHERS MAY RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
WALLS...AND WINDOWS...AND COULD BECOME UNINHABITABLE. HOUSES OF
POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION MAY HAVE PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF
FAILURE...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UNSECURED LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. MANY AREAS COULD HAVE POWER
OUTAGES...HUNDREDS OF WIRES MAY FALL...TRANSFORMERS COULD
POP...AND SOME POWER POLES MIGHT BE PULLED DOWN.
ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED
GROUND. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP...AND
MODERATE DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IN CITRUS ORCHARDS. UP TO ONE HALF OF
NEWLY PLANTED CROPS MAY BE DAMAGED.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS 80 TO 100 PERCENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DIMINISHING 50 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 30 PERCENT
OVER WILLACY AND NORTHERN CAMERON THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
...INLAND FLOODING...
CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS
THAT FROM 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF CAMERON AND SOUTHERN WILLACY COUNTIES
INCLUDING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...LAGUNA VISTA AND
LAGUNA HEIGHTS SINCE MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD 6 TO 9 INCHES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND 3 TO 6 INCHES
ESTIMATED ACROSS EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BRING
TOTALS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 24 INCHES
IN PORTIONS OF CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
TO SPREAD WEST INTO HIDALGO COUNTY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH OR AREAL FLOODING IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FIRST AND IN OTHER AREAS
LATER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE
SPECIFIC AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON THE FINAL TRACK OF DOLLY AS SHE MOVES FURTHER WEST.
SHOULD MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR RESACA FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
PERSONS LIVING NEAR OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY. IN THESE AREAS...SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL
OCCUR...AND SOME POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE
IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
WATER LEVELS IN VERY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET.
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RISES BETWEEN 3 AND 5
FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WATER RISES TO NEAR 2 FEET. NUMEROUS
MAIN ROADS WILL BE CLOSED. DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED EXCEPT
FOR EMERGENCIES.
...TORNADOES...
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREAS TO
THE NORTH OF THE EYE OF DOLLY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 830 PM CDT.
$$
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