[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed Jul 23 13:56:48 CDT 2008
WTUS84 KBRO 231854 PAA
HLSBRO
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE DOLLY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
154 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...THE EYEWALL OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE DOLLY CROSSING SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY...
.AT 12 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MEANDERING OVER THE PAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...BUT WILL
RESUME A MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE INLAND
OVER EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY AND EASTERN WILLACY COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DOLLY IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER OF DOLLY...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 140 MILES.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 967 MB.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.
TXZ253>255-241900-
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HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
154 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...HURRICANE WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
DOLLY...A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...IS MOVING OVER THE WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY PORTIONS OF PADRE ISLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER OF DOLLY ARE 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS MOVING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD FROM DOLLY COVERS
MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS
THESE BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FOLLOWING ARE PRELIMINARY PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS
DUE TO HURRICANE DOLLY. PORT ISABEL: 57 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70...
HARLINGEN: 44 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 64...BROWNSVILLE: 46 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 64...RINCON: 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 48...BAYVIEW 42 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 54...MCALLEN 26 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 36.
RECENT RAINFALL TOTALS AS OF MIDDAY TODAY...BROWNSVILLE: 2.15
INCHES...BAYVIEW: 2.27 INCHES...MCALLEN: 0.28 INCHES...HARLINGEN:
1.68 INCHES...WESLACO: 0.51 INCHES...EDINBURG: 0.14 INCHES.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
TORNADO WATCH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED SURGE WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 FEET
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF DOLLY. THE EXPECTED SURGE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE POINT OF LANDFALL WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ON SHORELINES CAN EXPECT SOME WATER
INCURSION INTO THEIR HOMES. THOSE IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS
MAY HAVE A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER IN THEIR HOMES...CAUSING MINOR TO
MODERATE DAMAGE. SHORELINE ROADS MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF WATER ACROSS...EXCEPT THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS
WHICH COULD HAVE UPWARDS OF 4 FEET OF WATER ACROSS THEM. MODERATE
TO SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE...BECOMING MORE LIKELY IF
CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
STRUCTURES ON OR VERY NEAR THE SHORELINE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE LANDFALL LOCATION.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTIES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO
HIDALGO COUNTY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS IS NEAR 100 PERCENT TODAY.
THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS FROM 45 TO 50 PERCENT
IN EASTERN CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES TODAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
TROPICAL STORM WINDS IN HIDALGO COUNTY TODAY IS 75 TO 95 PERCENT.
THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN HIDALGO COUNTY TODAY
IS FROM 15 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OVER
NORTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY.
...INLAND FLOODING...
CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS
THAT FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALL OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES SINCE MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS FROM 10 TO 12 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...LAGUNA VISTA AND LAGUNA HEIGHTS.
THE EYEWALL OF DOLLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WILL
CONTINUING MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN WILLACY AND
EASTERN CAMERON COUNTIES. 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE CENTER OF DOLLY...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OF UP TO 15 TO
20 INCHES DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY. FLASH OR AREAL FLOODING IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FIRST AND
IN OTHER AREAS LATER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
THE SPECIFIC AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON THE FINAL TRACK OF DOLLY AS SHE MOVES FURTHER WEST
SHOULD MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR RESACA FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
PERSONS LIVING NEAR OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
IN THESE AREAS...SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR...AND
SOME POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.
WATER LEVELS IN VERY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET.
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RISES BETWEEN 3 AND 5
FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WATER RISES TO NEAR 2 FEET. NUMEROUS
MAIN ROADS WILL BE CLOSED. DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED EXCEPT
FOR EMERGENCIES.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN A POSSIBILITY TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE DOLLY MOVES ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE NEAR THE WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY LINE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HIDALGO...WILLACY
AND CAMERON COUNTIES.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 PM CDT.
$$
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ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-
154 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
RAIN BANDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF DOLLY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
BROOKS...HIDALGO...ZAPATA AND STARR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS
SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED THEIR FINAL PREPARATIONS AND SHOULD BE IN A
PLACE OF SHELTER FOR THE DURATION OF THE STORM. HEAVIER RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD STOCK THEIR HURRICANE KITS WITH NON PERISHABLE
FOOD IN CASE OF LONG POWER OUTAGES. PEOPLE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS NEED TO CONSIDER AN EVACUATION PLAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BASED ON EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OR MORE.
...WINDS...
CURRENTLY NORTH WINDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND WILL INCREASE
TO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS
STARR...JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS RANGE FROM 60 TO 80
PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE WESTERN VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN VALLEY WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY FOR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS
COUNTY.
...INLAND FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST OVER STARR...JIM HOGG...
ZAPATA AND BROOKS COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HEAVY RAINS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD PERSIST AS
TORRENTIAL RAINS INTO THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FOR THE EVENT...CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES
AREA WIDE FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 INCHES IN PERSISTENT TORRENTIAL
RAINS NEAR THE EYEWALL OF DOLLY. NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND ARROYOS COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS MID DAY
TODAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE RAINS
FROM DOLLY LINGER.
BY TONIGHT...ALL SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY SURPASS BANK FULL.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST AT LEAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. SOME STREAMS OR
ARROYOS WILL EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY SEVERAL FEET AND MAY FLOOD
NEARBY HOMES. EVACUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
RIVERS IN AFFECTED AREAS WILL RISE...WITH SOME REACHING OR
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. NORMALLY QUICK RISING RIVERS WILL EXCEED
FLOOD STAGE BY SEVERAL FEET...FLOODING HOMES ALONG THE RIVERSIDE.
PASTURES WILL ALSO FLOOD...BUT LIVESTOCK LOSSES SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. SEVERAL SECONDARY ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE WASHED OUT.
DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE OUTER RAIN BANDS CONTINUE
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 PM CDT.
$$
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-241900-
/O.CON.KBRO.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
154 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
DOLLY...A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...IS CROSSING LAGUNA MADRE NEAR
THE CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY LINE. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER OF DOLLY HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY
IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD
FROM DOLLY COVERS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES.
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF WATERS. THE STRONGEST CORE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD AND
OUT TO 30 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE OF CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES.
SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 24 FEET OFFSHORE AND WILL
REMAIN AT THESE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEAUFORT SCALE 12
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
TORNADO WATCH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED SURGE WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 FEET
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF DOLLY. THE EXPECTED SURGE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE POINT OF LANDFALL WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TODAY AND
INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.
ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ON SHORELINES CAN EXPECT SOME WATER
INCURSION INTO THEIR HOMES. THOSE IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS
MAY HAVE A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER IN THEIR HOMES...CAUSING MINOR TO
MODERATE DAMAGE. SHORELINE ROADS MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF WATER ACROSS...EXCEPT THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS
WHICH COULD HAVE UPWARDS OF 4 FEET OF WATER ACROSS THEM. MODERATE
TO SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE...BECOMING MORE LIKELY IF
CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
STRUCTURES ON OR VERY NEAR THE SHORELINE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE LANDFALL LOCATION.
...WINDS...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY IS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN LAGUNA
MADRE NEAR THE CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. THE
STRONGEST CORE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
LAGUNA MADRE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD AND OUT TO 30 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE. SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 24 FEET OFFSHORE AND WILL
REMAIN AT THESE HEIGHT.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NEAR 100 PERCENT
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS BAY AND GULF WATERS...WHILE THE PROBABILITY
OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS FROM 50 TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAGUNA MADRE. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS FOR THE GULF WATERS OF WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES
WILL RANGE FROM 50 TO 100 PERCENT.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE A POSSIBILITY AS DOLLY MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAGUNA MADRE.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 PM.
$$
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/O.CON.KBRO.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
154 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
DOLLY...A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...IS MOVING OVER THE WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY PORTIONS OF PADRE ISLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER OF DOLLY ARE 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS MOVING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD FROM DOLLY COVERS
MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS
THESE BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FOLLOWING ARE PRELIMINARY PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS
DUE TO HURRICANE DOLLY. PORT ISABEL: 57 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70...
HARLINGEN: 44 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 64...BROWNSVILLE: 46 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 64...RINCON: 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 48...BAYVIEW 42 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 54...MCALLEN 26 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 36.
RECENT RAINFALL TOTALS AS OF MIDDAY TODAY...BROWNSVILLE: 2.15
INCHES...BAYVIEW: 2.27 INCHES...MCALLEN: 0.28 INCHES...HARLINGEN:
1.68 INCHES...WESLACO: 0.51 INCHES...EDINBURG: 0.14 INCHES.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
TORNADO WATCH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED SURGE WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 FEET
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DOLLY MAKES FINAL LANDFALL. THE
EXPECTED SURGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE POINT OF LANDFALL WILL RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 FEET. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ON SHORELINES CAN EXPECT SOME WATER
INCURSION INTO THEIR HOMES. THOSE IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS
MAY HAVE A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER IN THEIR HOMES...CAUSING MINOR TO
MODERATE DAMAGE. SHORELINE ROADS MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF WATER ACROSS...EXCEPT THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS
WHICH COULD HAVE UPWARDS OF 4 FEET OF WATER ACROSS THEM. MODERATE
TO SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE...BECOMING MORE LIKELY IF
CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
STRUCTURES ON OR VERY NEAR THE SHORELINE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE LANDFALL LOCATION.
...WINDS...
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE IMMINENT OR ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS OF WILLACY AND THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
CAMERON COUNTY. IN KENEDY COUNTY...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITH FREQUENT HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH MIDDAY.
POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES WILL LIKELY BE
DESTROYED. OTHERS MAY RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
WALLS...AND WINDOWS...AND COULD BECOME UNINHABITABLE. HOUSES OF
POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION MAY HAVE PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF
FAILURE...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UNSECURED LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. MANY AREAS COULD HAVE
POWER OUTAGES...HUNDREDS OF WIRES MAY FALL...TRANSFORMERS COULD
POP...AND SOME POWER POLES MIGHT BE PULLED DOWN.
ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED
GROUND. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP...AND
MODERATE DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IN CITRUS ORCHARDS. UP TO ONE HALF OF
NEWLY PLANTED CROPS MAY BE DAMAGED.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NEAR 100
PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FOR COASTAL
WILLACY AND COASTAL CAMERON COUNTIES RANGES FROM 50 TO 100
PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN SOUTHERN
KENEDY COUNTY RANGE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS
THAT FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALL OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES SINCE MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS FROM 10 TO 12 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...LAGUNA VISTA AND LAGUNA HEIGHTS.
THE EYEWALL OF DOLLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WILL
CONTINUING MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN WILLACY AND
EASTERN CAMERON COUNTIES. 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE CENTER OF DOLLY...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OF UP TO 15 TO
20 INCHES DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY. FLASH OR AREAL FLOODING IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FIRST AND
IN OTHER AREAS LATER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
THE SPECIFIC AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON THE FINAL TRACK OF DOLLY AS SHE MOVES FURTHER WEST
SHOULD MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR RESACA FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
PERSONS LIVING NEAR OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
IN THESE AREAS...SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR...AND
SOME POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.
WATER LEVELS IN VERY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET.
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RISES BETWEEN 3 AND 5
FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WATER RISES TO NEAR 2 FEET. NUMEROUS
MAIN ROADS WILL BE CLOSED. DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED EXCEPT
FOR EMERGENCIES.
...TORNADOES...
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER OF DOLLY
APPROACHES THE EASTERN WILLACY AND NORTHEASTERN CAMERON COUNTY
COASTLINES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 PM CDT.
$$
SPEECE
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