[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY AT 23/1100 UTC IS NEAR
25.8N 96.6W...OR ABOUT 50 NM...90 KM EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 27N
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL AT 23/0900 UTC IS NEAR
44.7N 55.9W MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 27 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL
IN 12 HOURS OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 15 TO
20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N ALONG THE WAVE.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25W FROM 10N TO 23N.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N26W 15N28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. NO PRECIPITATION JUST ACCOMPANIES
THIS WAVE. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
13N17W 8N30W 6N40W 7N55W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
29W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 3N3W 5N11W 8N25W TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING
CLOSER AND CLOSER TO SHORE. IT IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS
OR SO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM
DOLLY INTO GULF OF MEXICO EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE HURRICANE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
CURVES FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE PANAMA COAST ALONG 80W.
A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 23N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA IN LAKE
MARACAIBO. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM REMNANT PRECIPITATION
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 76W
AND 82W. ONE AREA OF STRONG PRECIPITATION CELLS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COSTA RICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EAST OF 64W. THE 80W TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE TROUGHS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE MORE AND MORE AWAY FROM NORTH
AMERICA AND MORE AND MORE INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WITH TIME. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN BETWEEN
70W AND 80W FROM THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS NORTHWARD. A SECOND MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 31N63W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 23N65W CYCLONIC CENTER INTO THE
MONA PASSAGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SURROUNDED
COMPLETELY BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS ALONG 31N47W 23N50W
15N50W.

$$
MT




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