[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KBRO 230722
HLSBRO

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE DOLLY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
222 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...RAINBANDS OF DOLLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST...

.AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A FURTHER
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE GULF
COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER OF DOLLY...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-240730-
/O.CON.KBRO.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
222 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS BAY AND GULF WATERS
WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IMMINENT. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS WILL REACH THE INTO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF AND SOUTHERN BAY
WATERS FROM 3 AND 6 AM THIS MORNING...PERHAPS CONTINUING THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON TODAY.

SEAS CURRENTLY AT 15 FEET OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TO NEAR 20 FEET OR
PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER THROUGHOUT TODAY...ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH
CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT WHITE CAPS. BEAUFORT SCALE 12 CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

ALL MARINERS SHOULD BE IN PORT NOW. ANY MARINERS NOT IN PORT
SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

 TORNADO WATCH.


...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDES ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR 2 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT PORT ISABEL...AND
ADDITIONAL GRADUAL RISES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING WITH
A FINAL SURGE ARRIVING NEAR OR AROUND TIME OF THE LOWER HIGH TIDE
OF THE DAY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.

AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...THE TIDE IS PREDICTED TO BE 1 FOOT ABOVE
MEAN LOW LOWER WATER...WITH SIMILAR VALUES PREDICTED AT PORT
ISABEL AT AROUND THE SAME TIME. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED SURGE
WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE BROWNSVILLE SHIP CHANNEL. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST...CONTINUING TO PUSH ADDITIONAL WATER ONSHORE.

ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ON SHORELINES CAN EXPECT SOME WATER INCURSION
INTO THEIR HOMES. THOSE IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY HAVE A
FOOT OR TWO OF WATER IN THEIR HOMES...CAUSING MINOR DAMAGE.
SHORELINE ROADS MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE WITH UP TO TWO FEET OF WATER
ACROSS...EXCEPT THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHICH COULD HAVE
UPWARDS OF 4 FEET OF WATER ACROSS THEM. MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE...BECOMING LIKELY IF CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH MULTIPLE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES.  SUCH WAVES WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
STRUCTURES ON OR VERY NEAR THE SHORELINE.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE IMMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 20
NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE CENTER OF DOLLY...AND SHOULD REACH THE AREA
NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS GREATER THAN 90
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...WHILE THE
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS NEAR 10 PERCENT IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES TO NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN AREA.

...TORNADOES...

WATERSPOUTS ARE A POSSIBILITY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OUTER RAIN BANDS AWAY FROM
THE CENTER.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 430 AM.

$$

TXZ251-256-257-240730-
/O.CON.KBRO.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
222 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

DOLLY...A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...IS MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE
U.S./MEXICO BORDER. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH OR GREATER WILL BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO
3 HOURS. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THESE BANDS MOVE INLAND.
AS THE CORE NEARS THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING MORNING
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES. MOBILE
HOME OR RECREATIONAL VEHICLE OWNERS SHOULD EVACUATE NOW.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

FLOOD WATCH.
 TORNADO WATCH.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDES ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR 2 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT PORT ISABEL...
AND ADDITIONAL GRADUAL RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A FINAL
SURGE ARRIVING NEAR OR AROUND TIME OF THE LOWER HIGH TIDE EARLY
TODAY.

AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...THE TIDE IS PREDICTED TO BE 1 FOOT ABOVE
MEAN LOW LOWER WATER...WITH SIMILAR VALUES PREDICTED AT PORT
ISABEL AT AROUND THE SAME TIME. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED SURGE
WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE BROWNSVILLE SHIP CHANNEL. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE
EAST...CONTINUING TO PUSH ADDITIONAL WATER ONSHORE.

ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ON SHORELINES CAN EXPECT SOME WATER INCURSION
INTO THEIR HOMES. THOSE IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY HAVE A
FOOT OR TWO OF WATER IN THEIR HOMES...CAUSING MINOR DAMAGE.
SHORELINE ROADS MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE WITH UP TO TWO FEET OF WATER
ACROSS...EXCEPT THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHICH COULD HAVE
UPWARDS OF 4 FEET OF WATER ACROSS THEM. MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE...BECOMING LIKELY IF CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH MULTIPLE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES.  SUCH WAVES WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
STRUCTURES ON OR VERY NEAR THE SHORELINE.

...WINDS...

NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM WINDS...40 TO 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL REACH
THE COAST BETWEEN 2 AM AND 4 AM. HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM AS THE INNER EYEWALL REACHES THE
COAST. IN ALL AREAS...FREQUENT HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK UNTIL JUST BEFORE NOON. SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY...WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM NORTH TO EAST.

POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES MAY BE DESTROYED.
OTHERS MAY RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WALLS...AND
WINDOWS...AND COULD BECOME UNINHABITABLE. HOUSES OF POOR TO
AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION MAY HAVE PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF FAILURE...AS
WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UNSECURED LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT
OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE
AND POSSIBLE INJURY. MANY AREAS COULD HAVE POWER OUTAGES...HUNDREDS
OF WIRES MAY FALL...TRANSFORMERS COULD POP...AND SOME POWER POLES
MIGHT BE PULLED DOWN.

ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED
GROUND. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP...AND
MODERATE DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IN CITRUS ORCHARDS. UP TO ONE HALF OF
NEWLY PLANTED CROPS MAY BE DAMAGED.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS IN EXCESS OF 80
PERCENT...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE HAVING A PROBABILITY
NEAR 100 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IS 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN...WILL SPREAD WEST WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BECOMING MORE FREQUENT
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM AND LIKELY CONTINUING FOR UP TO 6 HOURS. 6 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE CORE OF
THE INNER EYEWALL...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE CENTER. FLASH OR AREAL FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SOON
AFTER DAYBREAK...IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FIRST AND IN OTHER AREAS
LATER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IF DOLLY
CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN.

SHOULD MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR RESACA FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY!

PERSONS LIVING NEAR OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. IN
THESE AREAS...SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR...AND SOME
POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.

WATER LEVELS IN VERY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET.
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RISES BETWEEN 3 AND 5
FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WATER RISES TO NEAR 2 FEET. NUMEROUS
MAIN ROADS WILL BE CLOSED. DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED EXCEPT
FOR EMERGENCIES.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATER SPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN BANDS MOVE ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND. AN
INCREASE CHANCE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS CENTER
APPROACHES THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 430 AM CDT.

$$

TXZ253>255-240730-
/O.CON.KBRO.HI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080724T1200Z/
HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
222 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THIS
INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. OUTER RAINBANDS
ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO BROOKS AND HIDALGO COUNTIES...WITH
THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD PUSHING INTO WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES.
RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED THEIR FINAL PREPARATIONS AND
SHOULD BE IN A PLACE OF SHELTER FOR THE DURATION OF THE STORM.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

FLOOD WATCH.
TORNADO WATCH.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST TOWARDS
MIDDAY TODAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS IS FROM 55 TO 85 PERCENT...WITH
MOST OF CAMERON COUNTY ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IS FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT...WITH AREAS IN CAMERON
COUNTY AROUND 20 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN...WILL SPREAD WEST WITH THE OUTER RAIN
BANDS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BECOMING MORE
FREQUENT BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM AND LIKELY CONTINUING FOR UP TO 6 TO
12 HOURS. 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER IN THE CORE OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CENTER. FLASH OR AREAL FLOODING IS
LIKELY TO BEGIN SOON AFTER DAYBREAK...IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FIRST
AND IN OTHER AREAS LATER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
IF DOLLY CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN.

SHOULD MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR RESACA FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT.

EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY!

PERSONS LIVING NEAR OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. IN
THESE AREAS...SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR...AND SOME
POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.

WATER LEVELS IN VERY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET.
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RISES BETWEEN 3 AND 5
FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WATER RISES TO NEAR 2 FEET. NUMEROUS
MAIN ROADS WILL BE CLOSED. DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED EXCEPT
FOR EMERGENCIES.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADOES ARE A POSSIBILITY TODAY AS THE OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVE
ASHORE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HIDALGO...WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTIES.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 430 AM CDT.

$$

TXZ248>250-252-240730-
/O.CON.KBRO.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080724T1200Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-
222 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THIS
INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. OUTER RAINBANDS
ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO BROOKS AND HIDALGO COUNTIES...WITH
THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD PUSHING INTO WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES.
RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED THEIR FINAL PREPARATIONS AND
SHOULD BE IN A PLACE OF SHELTER FOR THE DURATION OF THE STORM.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

 FLOOD WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS SHOULD STOCK THEIR HURRICANE KITS WITH NON PERISHABLE
FOOD IN CASE OF LONG POWER OUTAGES. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED MORE THAN 50 MPH...THESE SPEED WILL BE ENOUGH
TO MOVE UNFASTENED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS AROUND...THUS THESE SHOULD
BE MOVED INDOORS TODAY. PEOPLE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEED
TO CONSIDER AN EVACUATION PLAN LATER TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED
RAINFALL OF UP TO 8 INCHES OR MORE.

...WINDS...

NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH LATER THIS MORNING.
INCREASING NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE AROUND MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
HIGHER GUSTS IN OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN 20 TO 35 PERCENT
FOR THE ENTIRE WESTERN VALLEY. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS IS LESS THAN 3 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN IN BROOKS COUNTY BETWEEN 6 AND
10 AM...AND IN STARR...JIM HOGG...AND ZAPATA COUNTIES BETWEEN 8
AM AND NOON. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING IN
BROOKS COUNTY...AND JUST AFTER NOON ELSEWHERE. THESE HEAVY RAINS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD PERSIST
AS TORRENTIAL RAINS INTO THE NIGHT.

FOR THE EVENT...CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
AREA WIDE BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND ARROYOS COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY BY MID
DAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERHAPS BEYOND WHEN RAINS ARE MORE
PERSISTENT.

EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...ALL SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY SURPASS BANK FULL.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST AT LEAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. SOME STREAMS OR
ARROYOS WILL EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY SEVERAL FEET AND MAY FLOOD
NEARBY HOMES. EVACUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

RIVERS IN AFFECTED AREAS WILL RISE...WITH SOME REACHING OR
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. NORMALLY QUICK RISING RIVERS WILL EXCEED
FLOOD STAGE BY SEVERAL FEET...FLOODING HOMES ALONG THE RIVERSIDE.
PASTURES WILL ALSO FLOOD...BUT LIVESTOCK LOSSES SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. SEVERAL SECONDARY ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE WASHED OUT.
DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATER SPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN BANDS MOVE INLAND AFTER 3 AM. AN INCREASE CHANCE
OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS CENTER APPROACHES THE
COAST THIS MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 430 AM CDT.

$$

SPEECE


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