[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 230003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DOLLY IS CENTERED NEAR 24.9N 95.7W AT 23/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 110 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 9 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL ON
WEDNESDAY. BROAD OUTFLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF EXTENDING S ON
THE ERN SIDE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. SIMILAR CONVECTION
REMAINS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 95W-88W. THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS DOPPLER
RADAR SITE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS SHOWING DOLLY'S CONVECTION
CORE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST. OTHER DOPPLER RADAR SITES ALONG
THE GULF COAST ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE
NWRN GULF FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI. DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF S TEXAS AND
NE MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED NEAR 42.2N 62.9W AT 22/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 145 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MOVING
NE AT 24 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CRISTOBAL IS RAPIDLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
STRENGTH BEFORE DISSIPATING DUE TO A STRONG SHEARING
ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 42N-44N
BETWEEN 60W-63W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AS WAVE
APPEARS TO BE MOVING AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT
REMAINS OVER THE SRN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A WELL DEFINED AND
ELONGATED LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED WITH AN UPPER
INVERTED TROUGH WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVELS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 24W-27W
INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE
HAS BEEN BROADENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS GIVING THE WAVE A
SLOWER WESTWARD MOVEMENT. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OR DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF
19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH AN UPPER
TROUGH AND AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR.
THEREFORE NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER OR CONVECTION ACTIVITY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 11N20W 9N24W 7N30W 6N45W
9N51W 9N55W 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 21W TO INLAND OVER W
AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N
BETWEEN 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO IS HURRICANE DOLLY MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF IN ASSOCIATION
WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THIS CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 88W-92W. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA TO OVER NE
FLORIDA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS INLAND FLORIDA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE GULF COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NAPLES FLORIDA.
OTHERWISE...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE ERN GULF E OF 88W WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE DOLLY COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. BROAD COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM IN THE W
ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-80W. THIS
IS PROVIDING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N BETWEEN NRN
COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING QUICKLY NE AND LOCATED S-SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA CANADA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SE GEORGIA TO NE FLORIDA AND IS
INDUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND AN AREA IN THE W ATLC FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN
78W-81W. BROAD AREA OF UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE WRN ATLC W OF
60W EXTENDING S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
UPPER LOWS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE
FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 62W-70W. ELSEWHERE SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER NRN HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT COASTAL W ATLC WATERS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY STABLE AIR...AND A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N43W
GIVING THE ATLC E OF 60W FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
24W...SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.

$$
HUFFMAN




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