[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KBRO 222209
HLSBRO

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE DOLLY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
509 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...HURRICANE DOLLY BEARING DOWN ON THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

.DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...PORT MANSFIELD...AND SECTIONS OF
BROWNSVILLE AND LOS FRESNOS.

MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.
SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO
SHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.
UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME
AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS
OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT
ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.

MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND
ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED. DOZENS OF
PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO
CITRUS ORCHARDS AND NEWLY PLANTED LOWLAND CROPS.

STORM SYNOPSIS:  AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST
OR ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE
COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WAS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.


TXZ251-256-257-230430-
/O.CON.KBRO.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
509 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

DOLLY...NOW A MINIMAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...IS MOVING STEADILY
TOWARD THE COAST. THE INNER CORE OF THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE NOW EDGED
TO WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE COAST AT BOCA CHICA BEACH. SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RESIDENTS
SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES. MOBILE HOME OR
RECREATIONAL VEHICLE OWNERS SHOULD EVACUATE TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS NEAR THE
COAST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INCLUDING SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...PORT MANSFIELD...AND BAYVIEW.

...WINDS...

NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...REACHING 20
TO 30 MPH BY 9 PM. THE MIDDLE EYEWALL OF DOLLY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM WINDS...40 TO 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COAST BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM. HURRICANE
FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM AS THE INNER
EYEWALL REACHES THE COAST. IN ALL AREAS...FREQUENT HURRICANE FORCE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK UNTIL JUST BEFORE
NOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING
FROM NORTH TO EAST.

DANGEROUS WINDS ARE POSSIBLE!

POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES MAY BE DESTROYED.
OTHERS MAY RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WALLS...AND
WINDOWS...AND COULD BECOME UNINHABITABLE. HOUSES OF POOR TO
AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION MAY HAVE PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF FAILURE...AS
WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. MANY LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL
HAVE DAMAGE...SOME COULD BE DESTROYED. UNSECURED LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. MANY AREAS COULD HAVE POWER
OUTAGES...HUNDREDS OF WIRES MAY FALL...TRANSFORMERS COULD
POP...AND SOME POWER POLES MIGHT BE PULLED DOWN.

ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED
GROUND. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP...AND
MODERATE DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IN CITRUS ORCHARDS. UP TO ONE HALF OF
NEWLY PLANTED CROPS MAY BE DAMAGED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDES ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT PORT
ISABEL...AND ADDITIONAL GRADUAL RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
A FINAL SURGE ARRIVING NEAR OR AROUND TIME OF THE LOWER HIGH TIDE
OF THE DAY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.

AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...THE TIDE IS PREDICTED TO BE 1 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOW LOWER WATER...WITH SIMILAR VALUES PREDICTED AT PORT
ISABEL AT AROUND THE SAME TIME. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED SURGE
WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 5 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE BROWNSVILLE SHIP CHANNEL. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE
EAST...CONTINUING TO PUSH ADDITIONAL WATER ONSHORE.

ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ON PRONE SHORELINES CAN EXPECT SOME WATER
INCURSION INTO THEIR HOMES. THOSE IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS
MAY HAVE A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER IN THEIR HOMES...CAUSING MINOR
DAMAGE. SHORELINE ROADS MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE WITH UP TO TWO FEET OF
WATER ACROSS...EXCEPT THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHICH COULD HAVE
UPWARDS OF 4 FEET OF WATER ACROSS THEM. MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE...BECOMING LIKELY IF CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH MULTIPLE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES.  SUCH WAVES WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
STRUCTURES ON OR VERY NEAR THE SHORELINE.

...INLAND FLOODING...

PERSISTENT RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MIDDLE EYEWALL
BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BEGINNING
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM AND LIKELY CONTINUING FOR UP TO 6 HOURS. 6 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE CORE OF
THE INNER EYEWALL...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE CENTER. FLASH OR AREAL FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SOON
AFTER DAYBREAK...IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FIRST AND IN OTHER AREAS
LATER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IF DOLLY CONTINUES TO
SLOW DOWN.

SHOULD MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR RESACA FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY!

PERSONS LIVING NEAR OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION LATER !**TODAY OR TONIGHT OR NEXT DAY**!.
IN THESE AREAS...SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR...AND SOME
POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.

WATER LEVELS IN VERY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET.
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RISES BETWEEN 3 AND 5
FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WATER RISES TO NEAR 2 FEET. NUMEROUS MAIN
ROADS WILL BE CLOSED. DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED EXCEPT FOR
EMERGENCIES.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE INNER CORE OF DOLLY ARRIVES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM AS WINDS BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND FAVOR BETTER
ROTATING CELLS.

...BEACH EROSION...

SEAS CONTINUE TO RISE QUICKLY JUST OFFSHORE...AND WAVES ARE
REACHING PAST THE DUNE LINE ALONG SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AS OF THIS
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO DRIVE INCREASING WAVES INTO THE
COAST. SHOULD DOLLY SLOW FURTHER...SEVERE BEACH EROSION COULD
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 PM CDT.

$$

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-230430-
/O.CON.KBRO.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
509 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

THE CORE OF DOLLEY IS NOW LESS THAN 40 NM FROM THE 60 NM MARKER
DUE EAST OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 60
KNOTS ARE IN THIS CORE...AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM AND COVER MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS
ESPECIALLY THOSE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD BY MIDNIGHT. A SMALL CORE
OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL CROSS THESE WATERS BETWEEN 2 AND 5
AM...PERHAPS CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING BACK TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH
CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT WHITE CAPS. BEAUFORT SCALE 12
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION LAST MINUTE PREPARATIONS
IMMEDIATELY! THOSE OUT IN THE GULF SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS
SOON AS POSSIBLE...AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH THE DURATION OF
DOLLY'S WINDS AND SEAS. THOSE IN PORT SHOULD FINISH MOVING THEIR
CRAFT TO SAFE STORAGE OR SECURELY TYING DOWN BOATS AND RAISING
THEM SUFFICIENTLY ABOVE THE WATER LEVEL BEFORE 9 PM TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDES ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT PORT
ISABEL...AND ADDITIONAL GRADUAL RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
A FINAL SURGE ARRIVING NEAR OR AROUND TIME OF THE LOWER HIGH TIDE
OF THE DAY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.

AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...THE TIDE IS PREDICTED TO BE 1 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOW LOWER WATER...WITH SIMILAR VALUES PREDICTED AT PORT
ISABEL AT AROUND THE SAME TIME. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED SURGE
WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 5 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE BROWNSVILLE SHIP CHANNEL. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE
EAST...CONTINUING TO PUSH ADDITIONAL WATER ONSHORE.

ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ON PRONE SHORELINES CAN EXPECT SOME WATER
INCURSION INTO THEIR HOMES. THOSE IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS
MAY HAVE A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER IN THEIR HOMES...CAUSING MINOR
DAMAGE. SHORELINE ROADS MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE WITH UP TO TWO FEET OF
WATER ACROSS...EXCEPT THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHICH COULD HAVE
UPWARDS OF 4 FEET OF WATER ACROSS THEM. MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE...BECOMING LIKELY IF CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH MULTIPLE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES.  SUCH WAVES WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
STRUCTURES ON OR VERY NEAR THE SHORELINE.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 PM CDT.

$$

TXZ253>255-230430-
/O.CON.KBRO.HI.W.0001.080723T0000Z-080724T1200Z/
HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
509 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

DOLLY...NOW A MINIMAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...IS MOVING STEADILY
TOWARD THE COAST. THE INNER CORE OF THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE NOW EDGED
TO WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE COAST AT BOCA CHICA BEACH. SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IN
BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...AND LOS FRESNOS. RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE
COMPLETED PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES. MOBILE HOME OR RECREATIONAL
VEHICLE OWNERS SHOULD EVACUATE TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
POPULATED AREAS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BROWNSVILLLE...HARLINGEN...AND RAYMONDVILLE.

...INLAND FLOODING...

PERSISTENT RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MIDDLE EYEWALL
BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BEGINNING
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM AND LIKELY CONTINUING FOR UP TO 6 HOURS. 6 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE CORE OF
THE INNER EYEWALL...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE CENTER. FLASH OR AREAL FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SOON
AFTER DAYBREAK...IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FIRST AND IN OTHER AREAS
LATER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IF DOLLY CONTINUES TO
SLOW DOWN.

SHOULD MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR RESACA FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY!

PERSONS LIVING NEAR OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION LATER !**TODAY OR TONIGHT OR NEXT DAY**!.
IN THESE AREAS...SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR...AND SOME
POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.

WATER LEVELS IN VERY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET.
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RISES BETWEEN 3 AND 5
FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WATER RISES TO NEAR 2 FEET. NUMEROUS MAIN
ROADS WILL BE CLOSED. DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED EXCEPT FOR
EMERGENCIES.

...WINDS...

NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...REACHING 20
TO 30 MPH BY 10 OR 11 PM. THE MIDDLE EYEWALL OF DOLLY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM WINDS...40 TO 50
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COAST BETWEEN
11 PM AND 1 AM...AND MOVE INLAND TO THE MORE POPULATED REGIONS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE
FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM AS THE INNER EYEWALL
PROGRESSES INLAND. IN ALL AREAS...FREQUENT HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK UNTIL NOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY...WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM NORTH TO EAST.

FOR WIND 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS 70 TO 80 MPH:

DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED.

MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.
SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO
SHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.
UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME
AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS
OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT
ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.

MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND
ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED. DOZENS OF
PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO
CITRUS ORCHARDS AND NEWLY PLANTED LOWLAND CROPS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDES ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT PORT
ISABEL...AND ADDITIONAL GRADUAL RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
A FINAL SURGE ARRIVING NEAR OR AROUND TIME OF THE LOWER HIGH TIDE
OF THE DAY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.

AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...THE TIDE IS PREDICTED TO BE 1 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOW LOWER WATER...WITH SIMILAR VALUES PREDICTED AT PORT
ISABEL AT AROUND THE SAME TIME. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED SURGE
WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 5 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE BROWNSVILLE SHIP CHANNEL. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE
EAST...CONTINUING TO PUSH ADDITIONAL WATER ONSHORE.

ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ON PRONE SHORELINES CAN EXPECT SOME WATER
INCURSION INTO THEIR HOMES. THOSE IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS
MAY HAVE A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER IN THEIR HOMES...CAUSING MINOR
DAMAGE. SHORELINE ROADS MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE WITH UP TO TWO FEET OF
WATER ACROSS...EXCEPT THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHICH COULD HAVE
UPWARDS OF 4 FEET OF WATER ACROSS THEM. MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE...BECOMING LIKELY IF CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH MULTIPLE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES.  SUCH WAVES WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
STRUCTURES ON OR VERY NEAR THE SHORELINE.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE INNER CORE OF DOLLY ARRIVES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM AS WINDS BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND FAVOR BETTER
ROTATING CELLS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 PM CDT.

$$

TXZ248>250-252-230430-
/O.CON.KBRO.TI.W.0001.080723T0000Z-080724T1200Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-
509 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

DOLLY IS NOW A MINIMAL HURRICANE...AND IS ALSO SLOWING ITS FORWARD
MOTION. SHOULD DOLLY CONTINUE MOVING AT 10 MPH OR MORE...THE
CHANCES INCREASE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. EVEN WITH ADDITIONAL
SLOWING...ENOUGH ENERGY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
WESTERN LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS SHOULD STOCK THEIR HURRICANE KITS WITH NON PERISHABLE
FOOD IN CASE OF LONG POWER OUTAGES. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED MORE THAN 50 MPH...THESE SPEED WILL BE ENOUGH
TO MOVE UNFASTENED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS AROUND...THUS THESE SHOULD
BE MOVED INDOORS TODAY. PEOPLE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEED
TO CONSIDER AN EVACUATION PLAN LATER TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED
RAINFALL OF UP TO 8 INCHES OR MORE.

...WINDS...

NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH LATER TONIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS
IN OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
SHOULD ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NOW 60 TO 75
PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS NOW 5 TO 10 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN IN BROOKS COUNTY BETWEEN 6 AND 10
AM...AND IN STARR...JIM HOGG...AND ZAPATA COUNTIES BETWEEN 8 AM
AND NOON. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING IN
BROOKS COUNTY...AND JUST AFTER NOON ELSEWHERE. THESE HEAVY RAINS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD PERSIST AS
TORRENTIAL RAINS INTO THE NIGHT.

FOR THE EVENT...CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
AREA WIDE BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND ARROYOS COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY BY MID
DAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERHAPS BEYOND WHEN RAINS ARE MORE
PERSISTENT.

EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALL SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY SURPASS BANK
FULL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST AT LEAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. SOME
STREAMS OR ARROYOS WILL EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY SEVERAL FEET AND MAY
FLOOD NEARBY HOMES. EVACUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

RIVERS IN AFFECTED AREAS WILL RISE...WITH SOME REACHING OR
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. NORMALLY QUICK RISING RIVERS WILL EXCEED
FLOOD STAGE BY SEVERAL FEET...FLOODING HOMES ALONG THE RIVERSIDE.
PASTURES WILL ALSO FLOOD...BUT LIVESTOCK LOSSES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
SEVERAL SECONDARY ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE WASHED OUT. DRIVING IS
HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE MORNING IN ANY EARLY
BANDS...THEN AGAIN AFTER THE MAIN CORE PASSES AND WINDS BECOME
MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE CORE ESPECIALLY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 PM CDT.

$$

52/BSG


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