[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Jul 22 08:25:16 CDT 2008
WTUS84 KBRO 221324
HLSBRO
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
824 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SLOWING DOWN AND NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
.AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES...425 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
TODAY WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DOLLY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON WEDNESDAY.
DATA FROM FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-221630-
/O.CON.KBRO.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
824 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
THE OUTER BANDS OF DOLLY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE GULF
WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NM EAST OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH 10 AM
THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER CELLS IN THESE BANDS. OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE THROUGH THE MORNING IN ALL AREAS
AND SEAS AND SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD 5 FEET OR HIGHER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY MARINE INTERESTS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN
BAY...AS WELL AS THE LAGUNA MADRE FROM PORT BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN
BAY.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION LAST MINUTE PREPARATIONS THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE OUT IN THE GULF SHOULD
SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH
THE DURATION OF DOLLY'S WINDS AND SEAS. THOSE IN PORT SHOULD
FINISH MOVING THEIR CRAFT TO SAFE STORAGE OR SECURELY TYING DOWN
BOATS AND RAISING THEM SUFFICIENTLY ABOVE THE WATER LEVEL.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TIDES WILL SLOWLY RISE AND COULD REACH
1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A STORM SURGE IN AND AROUND THE
LAGUNA MADRE OF UP TO 3 OR 4 FEET AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST LEVELS NEAR THE PORT BROWNSVILLE SHIP
CHANNEL. PLEASE NOTE THAT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND A FURTHER
SLOWING COULD RAISE POTENTIAL SURGE BY A FOOT OR TWO.
...WINDS...
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN FEEDER BANDS
BEYOND 20 NM OUT THROUGH NOON. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
ARRIVE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM IN THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OUT AND AFTER
7 PM ELSEWHERE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE
WATERS EAST OF PORT MANSFIELD AND POINTS SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DOLLY APPROACHES AND CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS IN 70 TO 85
PERCENT OVER THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 10 TO 20 PERCENT
MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN STRONGER FEEDER BANDS
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED FOR
POSSIBLE MARINE WARNINGS FOR INDIVIDUAL CELLS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE IS SCHEDULED TO BE UPDATED AROUND 1030 AM CDT.
$$
TXZ251-256-257-221630-
/O.CON.KBRO.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
824 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE
LATER TODAY WHILE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BENDING TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE LATER TODAY...CONTINUING TONIGHT. CERTAINTY
IS INCREASING FOR AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS NEAR THE
COAST...INCLUDING PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...AND PORT
MANSFIELD.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION LAST MINUTE
PREPAREDNESS AND PROTECTION. MOBILE HOME AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLE
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO EVACUATE FROM THE COASTAL ZONE DUE TO
EXPECTED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. OTHERS SHOULD COMPLETE
PREPARATIONS INCLUDING BOARDING UP WINDOWS...SECURING DOORS AND
GARAGE DOORS...AND CHECKING THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS KITS TO
HAVE ADEQUATE SUPPLIES. SHOULD HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCUR...WIDESPREAD
POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...TIDES WILL SLOWLY RISE AND COULD REACH 1.5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A STORM SURGE IN AND AROUND THE LAGUNA MADRE
OF UP TO 3 OR 4 FEET AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST LEVELS NEAR THE PORT BROWNSVILLE SHIP CHANNEL. PLEASE NOTE
THAT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND A FURTHER SLOWING COULD RAISE
POTENTIAL SURGE BY A FOOT OR TWO.
...WINDS...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN 15
TO 20 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH AFTER SUNSET AS RAIN BANDS HEAD INLAND. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLY ARRIVING BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE
DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT STATEMENT.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS 70 TO 80 PERCENT
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES...WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS IS NOW AROUND 15 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
OUTER RAIN BANDS COULD BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
PERHAPS AS SOON AS NOON...AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD
EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVING IN LATE THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. EARLY RAINS WILL BE BRIEF BUT HEAVY...AND NO FLOODING
IS EXPECTED.
FOR THE EVENT...CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
AREA WIDE BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN RAINS ARE MORE PERSISTENT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE PROVIDED IN FUTURE STATEMENTS.
...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TORNADO LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING
IN ANY STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE OUTER FEEDER BANDS.
...BEACH EROSION...
SHOULD DOLLY CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AND STRENGTHEN...INCREASING
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL CAUSE THE
ONSET OF BEACH EROSION BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS
BECOMING SIGNIFICANT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE IS SCHEDULED TO BE ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT.
$$
TXZ250-253>255-221630-
/O.CON.KBRO.HI.W.0001.080723T0000Z-080724T1200Z/
BROOKS-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
824 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE
LATER TODAY WHILE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BENDING TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE LATER TODAY...CONTINUING TONIGHT. CERTAINTY
IS INCREASING FOR AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE LARGER POPULATION CENTERS OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST DATA SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE FROM WESLACO TO HARLINGEN AND
BROWNSVILLE.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
POPULATED SECTION OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN BROOKS COUNTY.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION LAST MINUTE
PREPAREDNESS AND PROTECTION. MOBILE HOME AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLE
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO EVACUATE FROM THE COASTAL ZONE DUE TO
EXPECTED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. OTHERS SHOULD COMPLETE
PREPARATIONS INCLUDING BOARDING UP WINDOWS...SECURING DOORS AND
GARAGE DOORS...AND CHECKING THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS KITS TO
HAVE ADEQUATE SUPPLIES. SHOULD HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCUR...WIDESPREAD
POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...TIDES WILL SLOWLY RISE AND COULD REACH 1.5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A STORM SURGE IN AND AROUND THE LAGUNA MADRE
OF UP TO 3 OR 4 FEET AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST LEVELS NEAR THE PORT BROWNSVILLE SHIP CHANNEL. PLEASE NOTE
THAT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND A FURTHER SLOWING COULD RAISE
POTENTIAL SURGE BY A FOOT OR TWO.
...INLAND FLOODING...
OUTER RAIN BANDS COULD BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
PERHAPS AS SOON AS NOON...AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD
EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVING IN LATE THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. EARLY RAINS WILL BE BRIEF BUT HEAVY...AND NO FLOODING
IS EXPECTED.
FOR THE EVENT...CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
AREA WIDE BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN RAINS ARE MORE PERSISTENT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY.
...WINDS...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN 15
TO 20 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH LATER THIS EVENING AS RAIN BANDS HEAD FARTHER INLAND.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLY ARRIVING BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY FROM
EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY TOWARD THE COAST. POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE
DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT STATEMENT.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 80
PERCENT IN BROWNSVILLE DOWN TO 55 PERCENT IN BROOKS COUNTY. THE
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 15 PERCENT IN
BROWNSVILLE TO 5 PERCENT IN NORTHERN BROOKS COUNTY.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF DOLLY MOVE INLAND.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT IS NEXT SCHEDULED TO BE UPDATED AT 1030 AM CDT.
$$
TXZ248-249-252-221630-
/O.CON.KBRO.TI.W.0001.080723T0000Z-080724T1200Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-STARR-
824 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
DOLLY IS NOW STRENGTHENING AND MAY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY...AND IS ALSO SLOWING ITS FORWARD MOTION. SHOULD DOLLY
CONTINUE MOVING AT 10 MPH OR MORE...THE CHANCES INCREASE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
WESTERN LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD STOCK THEIR HURRICANE KITS WITH NON PERISHABLE
FOOD IN CASE OF LONG POWER OUTAGES. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED MORE THAN 50 MPH...THESE SPEED WILL BE ENOUGH
TO MOVE UNFASTENED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS AROUND...THUS THESE SHOULD
BE MOVED INDOORS TODAY. PEOPLE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEED TO
CONSIDER AN EVACUATION PLAN LATER TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED RAINFALL
OF UP TO 8 INCHES OR MORE.
...INLAND FLOODING...
OUTER RAIN BANDS COULD BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.EARLY RAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WILL BE BRIEF BUT HEAVY...AND NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
FOR THE EVENT...CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
AREA WIDE BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND ARROYOS COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY BY MID
DAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN RAINS ARE MORE PERSISTENT. FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.
...WINDS...
NORTH WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH LATER THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN OUTER RAIN BANDS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM IN 50 TO 60 PERCENT...WHILE THE
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS NOW AROUND 5 PERCENT.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 1030 AM CDT.
$$
52/BSG
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