[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY AT 22/1200 UTC IS NEAR 23.7N
94.0W...OR ABOUT 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 993 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR.  A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO
NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR
TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. PLEASE
MONITOR BULLETINS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR STORM
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF DOLLY
SHOULD BE REALLY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
BEFORE TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES/260 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS AND LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL AT 22/0900 UTC IS
NEAR 39.1N 68.2W OR ABOUT ABOUT 421 NM/780 KM NORTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 389 NM/720 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING
NORTHEAST 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
89 NM/165 KM FROM THE CENTER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CRISTOBAL LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W SOUTH OF 23N...JUST OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA...MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 17N ALONG THE WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20W FROM 10N TO 21N. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 17N20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE EASTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
17N23W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
ITCZ.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
AN AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
11N20W 7N20W 6N40W 8N50W 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 8N26W 7N38W 5N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N
TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
CURVES AWAY FROM DOLLY INTO GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
CURVES FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER NEAR THE GULF OF URABA ALONG THE COLOMBIA
COAST. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN
79W AND 82W ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 21N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE 73W/74W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OF THE TROUGHS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE U.S.A. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 27N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N69W. A THIRD
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
PUERTO RICO INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 54W...AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N19W TO
27N23W.

$$
MT/PAW




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