[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL AT 21/0900 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 36.1N
73.9W OR ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NE AT 11 KT. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE S OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN 73W-76W.

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY AT 21/0900 IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 87.4W OR
ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...EAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO MOVING NW AT
13 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE N OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 84W-88W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 17 KT. THIS IS
A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE SOME MID LEVEL ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ NEAR 6N WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W/69W S OF 18N
MOVING W 20 KT. ONLY ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-70W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 9N35W 6N50W 6N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER A LARGE AREA ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 12W-24W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 24W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 34W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-5N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN 56W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N92W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO T.S. DOLLY. SEE
ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 91W-94W DUE TO AN OUTER BAND OF
T.S. DOLLY. OUTSIDE OF T.S. DOLLY...WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY ONLY
5-10 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W MOVING W. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO N OF T.S.DOLLY AT
25N85W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT
DOLLY TO TRAVERSE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEN PROCEED TOWARD
THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONG CONVECTION
AND INCREASING WIND VELOCITIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. DOLLY IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEE
ABOVE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION N OF THE CENTER. FURTHER S...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 81W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-86W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. SEE
ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS VOID OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CLOUDS SWEEPING WESTWARD IN
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO T.S. DOLLY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N67W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 76W...AND OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT DOLLY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE NW
TOWARDS THE S TEXAS COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. CRISTOBAL IS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BRUSHING CAPE
HATTERAS AND IS NO LONGER PRODUCING CONVECTION S OF 32N. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N59W 29N63W
24N68W. A 1012 MB LOW IS ON THE TROUGH AXIS AT 29N63W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1027 HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR THE AZORES AT 37N35W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N50W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
W OF 70W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 28N60W. AN
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N27W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW AT 29N63W
TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA










This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net