[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL AT 21/0300 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 35.2N
75.0W OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM...EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA MOVING NE AT 8 KT. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE S OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN 73W-77W.

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY AT 21/0300 IS CENTERED NEAR 19.6N 85.8W OR
ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND
ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO MOVING NW
AT 12 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE N OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 83W-87W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 17 KT. THIS IS
A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE SOME MID LEVEL ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ NEAR 6N WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W S OF 18N IS MOVING
W 20 KT. ONLY ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE WAVE MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 64W-70W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 9N30W 6N50W 7N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 18W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 31W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N93W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO T.S. DOLLY. SEE
ABOVE. OUTSIDE OF DOLLY WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY ONLY 5-10 KT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W MOVING W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO N OF DOLLY AT 25N85W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT DOLLY
TO TRAVERSE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEN PROCEED TOWARD THE
TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONG CONVECTION AND
INCREASING WIND VELOCITIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. DOLLY IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. THE SHORT TERM
TRACK IS TOWARDS CANCUN MEXICO WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION N OF
THE CENTER. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 86W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 79W-81W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS VOID
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CLOUDS SWEEPING WESTWARD
IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO DOLLY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N67W. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 76W...AND OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT DOLLY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. CRISTOBAL IS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BRUSHING CAPE
HATTERAS AND IS NO LONGER PRODUCING CONVECTION S OF 32N. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N55W 29N63W
25N65W 24N69W. A 1016 MB LOW IS ON THE TROUGH AXIS AT 29N63W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1029 HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 39N30W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO
30N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR
28N60W. AN LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
22N27W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA







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