[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190616
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 39.5N 48.8W AT 19/0300 UTC
MOVING NE AT 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE EYE IS STILL
EVIDENT WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION W AND N OF THE CENTER. BERTHA
IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR TOO LONG AS IT WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. BERTHA WILL BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL ON
SUN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE N
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE W QUADRANT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.9N 79.6W OR ABOUT
65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA MOVING NE AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1011 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
35 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MOST ALL
CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OFFSHORE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 78W-80W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 21N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N MOVING WNW 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL CYCLONE
COULD FORM AT ANY TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WNW. ALL
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 71W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 73W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 72W-74W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. HIGH
AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 21N WITH A 1007 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE INLAND OVER S HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...
GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN
88W-91W.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N25W 6N40W 10N51W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 20W-23W...FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 27W-29W...AND FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 32W-35W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N85W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY 5-10 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 21N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 91W-93W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR
27N99W PRODUCING SLY FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W PRODUCING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NE GULF W OF 90W AND N OF 26N. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE SE GULF AND W CUBA S OF 26N AND E OF
86W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE OVER W CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY OVER
HISPANIOLA. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
...S MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
PRESENTLY ALONG 87W/88W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BOTH TROPICAL
WAVES HAVE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 81W-85W. IN ADDITION
...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF
13N AND E OF 65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL CUBA IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 17N60W. BOTH UPPER LEVEL LOWS HAVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.D.THREE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 79W-80W. FURTHER E...A
1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N72W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N55W 28N60W 28N65W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1031 HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES NEAR 41N31W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO
32N38W 24N53W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N64W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E
NEAR 28N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
30W.

$$
FORMOSA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net