[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 180834
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  61
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

TENACIOUS BERTHA CONTINUES TO HAVE A REMARKABLE WELL-DEFINED CLOUD
PATTERN WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH...AN EYE-LIKE
FEATURE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50
KNOTS...BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. AS BERTHA MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. THEREAFTER...BERTHA SHOULD BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
IT APPEARS THAT FINALLY BERTHA WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A SHARP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE.  SOME
MODELS MAKE BERTHA EXTRATROPICAL SOONER THAN OTHERS BUT THEY ALL
LEAD TO THE SAME ENDING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      18/0900Z 34.8N  53.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 36.6N  51.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 39.0N  48.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 42.5N  45.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 46.0N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 54.0N  31.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$

FORECASTER AVILA



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