[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 162333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED A SHORT DISTANCE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION
IN THE DISTURBANCE...AND FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER.  IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS
EARLIER IN THE DAY.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT
OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.  ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. REGARDLESS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
TOMORROW...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




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