[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 33.4N 64.0W AT 15/0000
UTC OR ABOUT 74 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AND IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS
SOME CHANCE THAT THIS COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE STRONGEST WINDS
MOVE PAST BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LARGE SWELLS
AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING ALONG THE US EAST COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 OF
THE CENTER OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING A BROAD AREA FROM
30N-35N BETWEEN 61W-67W.

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT WITH A 1008 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N MOVING
ROUGHLY WNW NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE WELL
DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC ROTATION...FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW
CENTER. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 40W-47W. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
FEATURE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
AN INVERTED-V CURVATURE ALONG THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
BETWEEN 59W-70W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 8N24W 6N36W 8N50W 10N63W AND
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 25W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 29W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM FROM 10N-13N WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION DOTTING THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US DIPPING S TO THE N GULF
COAST GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER S
GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA AND S LOUISIANA INTO E TEXAS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE N OF THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS S ALABAMA TO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
W ATLC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH A 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE W GULF
NEAR 25N93W. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER SW TEXAS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THIS IS ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE N GULF AS
WELL AS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COVERING THE AREA N
OF 15N FROM 70W-82W AND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER CUBA AND ALONG THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL AS INLAND OVER JAMAICA AND HAITI. THE ITCZ
CROSSES THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 79W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC WHICH IS ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN REMAINS QUIET THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRANSVERSING THE AREA FROM W TO E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA JUST N OF THE
REGION NEAR BERMUDA...SEE ABOVE. A MID/UPPER LOW IS MOVING NE
OUT OF THE REGION ALONG THE E US COAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N76W TO S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. A
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS JUST THE E ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/130 NM OF LINE FROM
30N74W TO OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N80W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-55W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE REGION
FROM 43W-50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
S/CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N58W AND EXTENDS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 26N22W COVERING THE E ATLC E OF 35W. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL AS REPORTS OF HAZY CONDITIONS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AFRICAN DUST S OF 23N E OF
65W ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE





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