[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.9N 63.4W AT 14/0600
UTC ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. BERTHA CONTINUES TO MEANDERING AS IT IS EMBEDDED
IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...BUT A MOTION TO THE N-NW IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION PERSISTING IN THE EAST QUADRANT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
CENTER FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 62W-63W. SIMILAR SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS IN A NORTHERN OUTER BAND FROM 32N-33N BETWEEN
61W-64W. THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DETECTED ON
DOPPLER RADAR FROM BERMUDA AND IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 50 NM SSE OF
THE ISLAND.

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A
1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWS A LARGE WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING...
FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 36W-43W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION
IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 33W-41W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...BARBADOS...ST
LUCIA AND OTHER ISLANDS ALL SHOW 24-HR PRES FALLS OF ABOUT 3 MB
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN WELL
DEFINED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BASED ON THE MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
61W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. 24-HR SLP
FALLS ARE ABOUT 2-3 MB OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...HONDURAS AND
OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND SRN MEXICO WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-19N AS WAVE MOVES BELOW AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 11N30W 10N39W 9N42W 10N59W
10N61W AND ACROSS NRN VENEZUELA. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 9N20W TO
4N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N93W WHERE 5-10 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE GULF. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 31N82W 28N82W
26N83W. MOST DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS INLAND
FLORIDA WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO N OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO
REMAIN ACROSS THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 22N-26N
BETWEEN 80W-86W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SRN MEXICO FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
91W-95W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 31N103W. THIS IS PROVIDING
MOST OF THE GULF WITH NE TO E UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE ERN GULF E OF 90W DUE TO A PAIR
OF UPPER LOWS AND ELONGATED TROUGHING...ONE LOCATED N OF THE
BAHAMAS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N77W AND ANOTHER OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N74W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS W OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
71W-76W IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN AS UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND COASTAL NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
80W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER NRN
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N72W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW NEAR 18N74W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING THE
WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH EXCEPTION ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN AS TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE AREA. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY DUE TO THE
WWD PROPAGATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA IS FURTHER E-NE. SEE ABOVE. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N53W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N44W 29N49W WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N30W TO 26N28W MOVING WWD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SFC REPORTS FROM
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE HAZY LOOK ON VISIBLE IMAGES EARLIER
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST S
OF 25N E OF 62W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N77W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING
S-SE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. THIS IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 76W-79W AS INDICATED ON LIGHTNING
DATA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N
OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N51W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OFFSHORE OF THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE CANARY AND
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 23N22W.

$$
HUFFMAN


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