[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.2N 63.1W AT 13/2100
UTC ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. BERTHA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR SOME TIME AS IT HAS
BEEN EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...BUT A MOTION TO THE
N-NW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION PERSISTING IN THE NE QUADRANT BETWEEN 60 NM AND
180 NM OF THE CENTER. THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
DETECTED ON DOPPLER RADAR FROM BERMUDA AND IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 80
NM SSE OF THE ISLAND.

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT.
A 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A LARGE WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC
TURNING...FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 36W-41W. FURTHER S...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 34W-40W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS FROM TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...BARBADOS...ST LUCIA AND
OTHER ISLANDS ALL SHOW 24-H PRES FALLS OF ABOUT 3 MB DUE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE WAVE. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN WELL DEFINED FOR
DAYS...HOWEVER ITS MOISTURE FIELD HAS FLATTENED SOME TODAY BASED
ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 60W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. 24-H SLP
FALLS ARE ABOUT 2-3 MB OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...HONDURAS AND
OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
82W-86W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 9N20W 11N32W 7N44W 10N53W
9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 15W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 19W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N91W. 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER N FLORIDA ALONG 32N80W 30N81W 27N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THE NE GULF FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 84W-89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS OVER INLAND CUBA BETWEEN 78W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 88W-91W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
NEAR 31N99W. MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NE TO E UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF
90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 90W. EXPECT...CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER IS ABOUT TO
ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS
DOMINATE THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-73W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF
70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
DUE TO THE NEW TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. HURRICANE
BERTHA IS FURTHER E. SEE ABOVE. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N52W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC ALONG 31N29W 26N27W MOVING W . SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. SFC REPORTS FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE HAZY LOOK ON VISIBLE IMAGES ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC...SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST S OF 25N E OF 62W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W. GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOTED OVER
HURRICANE BERTHA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N50W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 20N20W.

$$
FORMOSA



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