[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130619
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA AT 13/0600 UTC IS NEAR 29.8N
62.5W...AND IT IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS 189 NM/
350 KM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. A VERY SLOW MOTION GENERALLY
TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO RESUME ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
ON MONDAY. THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS SLOWLY
TO A POSITION NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE
ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER
TO BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W
AND 63W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 30W AND 31W FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED AND/OR
DISSIPATED ALREADY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ONE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER/
TROUGH IS ALONG 52W...55W...AND 58W...JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 49W AND 51W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE STRETCHES FROM JAMAICA TO THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
10N TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A LOT TO DO
WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
12N16W 12N25W 8N36W 12N48W 7N59W IN NORTHERN GUYANA. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM
8N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W
AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
AREA. A FEW OTHER FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED OR APPEAR TO BE
DEVELOPING. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORMING FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 28N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM EASTERN CUBA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 31N74W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. SOME SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND
TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND FROM GRAND CAYMAN TO CENTRAL CUBA.
A SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...NORTH OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO WEST OF 100W PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEST OF 30N105W 22N100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS NEAR
31N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO EASTERN CUBA REACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS IN THE WATERS EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA/NORTH OF HONDURAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST UNDER EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE AND A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EAST OF 70W AND
EAST OF 72W SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NEAR
14N63W. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NEAR THE 14N63W CENTER
HAS DISSIPATED ALREADY.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ABOUT 900 NM EAST OF
HURRICANE BERTHA...THROUGH 33N46W TO 23N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 47W THROUGH 33N TO 31N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W IS AROUND
A WEAK AND POSSIBLY STILL-FORMING CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 15N34W.

$$

MT




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