[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120014
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA AT 11/2100 UTC IS NEAR 29.1N
62.2W...OR ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. BERTHA REMAINS
A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. LARGE
SWELLS AND HIGH SURF CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR BERMUDA. PRESENTLY BERTHA IS FORECAST TO PASS
EAST OF BERMUDA AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. INTERESTS IN THE
ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS BERTHA AS A
SYMMETRICAL HURRICANE WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BOTH TO THE
NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 59W-64W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. AN INVERTED-V PATTERN AS WELL AS BROAD
CYCLONIC TURNING ARE OBSERVED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 40W-43W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST AT 15 KT.
SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NO CONVECTION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE AXIS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 68W-72W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 6N30W 10N42W 7N50W
7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 19W-24W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 31W-35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-5N BETWEEN 30W-34W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N86W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO E TEXAS. 5-10 KT WINDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND HOWEVER OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...S GEORGIA...AND S ALABAMA FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN
83W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 81W-83W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 88W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVEL...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. MOST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE NW GULF AND S
TEXAS WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER
THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
PANAMA    FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 77W-83W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA
FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 71W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER W HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR  FROM
12N-16N BETWEEN 86W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N62W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 78W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 78W. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N73W. HURRICANE
BERTHA IS FURTHER E. SEE ABOVE. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC IS NEAR 32N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N74W. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOTED OVER HURRICANE BERTHA. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N45W. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR
20N28W.

$$
FORMOSA





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