[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110610
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA AT 11/0300 UTC IS NEAR 27.7N
61.2W. IT IS MOVING NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS
335 NM/620 KM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N
TO 29N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 24N
TO 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
IDEA TO KEEP THE INTENSITY LEVEL FOR BERTHA THE SAME FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE WIND
SHEAR POTENTIALLY INCREASES AND BERTHA PASSES OVER GRADUALLY
COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BERTHA APPEARS TO BE SLOWING
DOWN GRADUALLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
315 DEGREES AT 07 KT. THE FORECAST AND ITS SUPPORTING REASONING
REALLY HAVE NOT CHANGED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO...INCLUDING
A VERY SLOW FORWARD MOTION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS NEAR BERMUDA.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA
MAY IMPACT BERMUDA. RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD
MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN
55W AND 66W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THIS AREA.

...THE ITCZ...
11N16W 7N32W 9N45W 8N52W 10N61W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 15N
BETWEEN 14W AND 32W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
32W AND 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
11N41W 9N46W 8N50W 6N53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FLOW AROUND THE 28N69W
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NORTH OF 23N...NORTHWESTWARD TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER. THE MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER/TROUGH
FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED ASHORE. IT NOW HUGS THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF TEXAS FROM 30N SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST/
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF THE 21N94W
CYCLONIC CENTER WEST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM 19N
TO 22N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
EARLIER PRECIPITATION REMAIN FROM MEXICO/GUATEMALA 16N TO 22N
BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN
91W AND 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN
68W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ALTERNATELY DEVELOPING...DISSIPATING...AND POSSIBLY
RE-DEVELOPING IN THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 17N IS AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 18N...AND THE 28N69W 25N74W
21N77W TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W AT THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA FROM
9N TO 11N BETWEEN THE VENEZUELA BORDER AND 75W JUST WEST OF
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N69W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N74W TO 21N77W IN EASTERN CUBA. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATELY
DEVELOPING...DISSIPATING...AND POSSIBLY RE-DEVELOPING IN THE
WATERS AND LAND AREAS NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN
66W AND 73W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE
BERTHA IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE 28N69W CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 35N43W...ABOUT
1000 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF HURRICANE BERTHA...THROUGH 32N44W TO 26N46W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 34N45W TO 31N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N70W
TO 28N ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W.

$$

MT


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