[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA AT 10/0900 UTC IS NEAR 26.0N
59.4W. IT IS MOVING NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS
474 NM/875 KM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N
TO 28N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 23N
TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ONLY TAKES THE WIND SPEEDS TO 95 KT...JUST SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN THE VALUES FOR A CATEGORY THREE MAJOR HURRICANE.
AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF HURRICANE BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THUS IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE MAY BEND TOWARD THE NORTH DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY
THE ACTIVITY OF HURRICANE BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND...NOW WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ALONG 99W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
THAT CUTS ACROSS THE TOP OF THE AREA OF THE WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER MEXICO IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
FROM LAND TO 21N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W.

...THE ITCZ...
10N14W 5N25W 6N34W 9N56W 9N61W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N34W 5N46W 10N55W
10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND
22W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WEST OF 74W AND NORTH OF 24N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
90W. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR 28N92W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN
BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INLAND MEXICO...ON TOP OF A 99W
TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
INTERIOR MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTH OF 20N...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR 14N63W FROM
SIX HOURS AGO APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS FORM AND IS NOT EVIDENT
AT THIS TIME. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG
70W SOUTH OF 16N. EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO HAVE
DIMINISHED. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE CURVED NORTHWARD
ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO
CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND WESTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS INVERTED
TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 6N73W IN COLOMBIA TO
14N79W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N
TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...NORTH
OF THE ITCZ...WITH BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
27N69W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF HURRICANE BERTHA
REACHES 30N52W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHOSE
SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS 31N42W. ANY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONT ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N60W TO
28N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSING THROUGH 31N29W TO 22N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N28W TO
22N47W TO 15N51W.

$$

MT





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