[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA AT 10/0300 UTC IS NEAR 25.5N
58.9W. IT IS MOVING NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES 10 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. THIS
POSITION ALSO IS 513 NM/950 KM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
COVER THE AREA FROM 24N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. A SEPARATE
LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 15 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 17N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 20N58W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 22N56W TO 26N56W. ALL OF THE
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST AT LEAST A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR BERTHA TO
REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 DUE TO COOLING SSTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE IN SHEAR...IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
STEERING FOR BERTHA IS BEING PROVIDED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH. BERTHA IS FORECAST TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH
AND SLOW DOWN AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS DURING
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. RESIDENTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR
CLOSELY THE ACTIVITY OF HURRICANE BERTHA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND...NOW WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ALONG 97W/98W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
THAT CUTS ACROSS THE TOP OF THE AREA OF THE WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER MEXICO IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W.

...THE ITCZ...
10N16W 6N24W 8N34W 7N44W 10N55W 9N61W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N29W 6N33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N35W 6N43W 8N50W 9N52W 10N55W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N13W 4N24W 4N28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WEST OF 74W AND NORTH OF 24N INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...REACHING THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. IT APPEARS THAT
AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST JUST WEST OF 90W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ON
TOP OF A 97W/98W TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTH OF 20N...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 14N63W...WITH NO DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 16N. EARLIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
PUERTO RICO HAVE DIMINISHED. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE
CURVED NORTHWARD ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN CUBA AND
80W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE TOP OF
THE AREA OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM 6N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 14N79W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 81W AND
82W...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...NORTH OF THE ITCZ...WITH
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
27N69W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF HURRICANE BERTHA
REACHES 30N52W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 33N42W TO 31N45W. ANY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONT ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W.  A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N62W
TO 28N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSING THROUGH 31N29W TO 22N38W.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 33N25W TO 24N48W TO 19N58W.

$$

MT


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