[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091027
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

HURRICANE BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 56.5W AT 09/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 560 MILES...905 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 790 MILES...1275 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS BERTHA BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF WINDSHEAR. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
55W-58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ID INTRODUCED ALONG 29W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT HAS LOW CLOUD TURNING JUST
N OF THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS IS
ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE. CONVECTION IS ALSO CONFINED TO THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE W OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN
90W-97W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 11N23W 8N35W 8N50W 7N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 18W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-7N BETWEEN 15W-31W...FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 33W-38W...AND FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
30N. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. 10-15 KT SELY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE AREA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT
AIRMASS CONVECTION LATER TODAY OVER MOST OF THE W GULF OF MEXICO
W OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION. SEE
ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND
N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 75W-85W. AN AREA OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM
16N-18N BETWEEN 66W-72W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM
15N-16N BETWEEN 77W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 87W-91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 28N AND W
OF 75W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AT
33N64W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N22W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N68W. TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N46W...AND NEAR 22N26W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N AND E OF 30W.

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FORMOSA







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