[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

HURRICANE BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 55.8W AT 09/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 580 MILES...935 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 840 MILES...1350 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS BERTHA BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF WINDSHEAR. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
55W-58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE PROTRUDES JUST A LITTLE N OF THE ITCZ.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE W OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 87W-93W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 11N23W 8N35W 9N49W 8N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 16W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
30N. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...FLORIDA...AND TEXAS. 10-15 KT SELY SURFACE FLOW IS
NOTED OVER THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 31N91W. ANOTHER TINY
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS
THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT MORE AIRMASS CONVECTION LATER TODAY OVER
MOST OF THE GULF ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION. SEE
ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND
N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 74W-82W. AN AREA OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S PUERTO RICO FROM
17N-18N BETWEEN 65W-67W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER COSTA
RICA...AND PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 81W-85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N83W. ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 29N AND W
OF 80W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AT
33N64W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
30N39W.  THIRD 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N25W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER S FLORIDA NEAR
27N81W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
28N64W. TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N45W...AND NEAR 21N33W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net