[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

HURRICANE BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 54.8W AT 08/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 620 MILES...1000 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT 900 MILES...1450 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO
90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS BERTHA BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF WINDSHEAR. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN
53W-56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM
22N-24N BETWEEN 51W-53W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE PROTRUDES NOT MUCH N OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A
PORTION OF THE WAVE BROKE OFF FROM THE NORTH AND IS ANALYZED AS
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NW ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE W OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 86W-91W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 11N23W 8N35W 8N45W 8N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 13W-16W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
30N. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 29N84W 24N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER INLAND FLORIDA FROM
26N-30N BETWEEN 80W-83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE W GULF AND S TEXAS FROM W OF 96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
... A TINY UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR
31N91W. ANOTHER TINY UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA
NEAR 27N81W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
W OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION. SEE
ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. A BAND OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 62W-70W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
W JAMAICA FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 78W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM
6N-12N BETWEEN 77W-83W. BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 83W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W. ELY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 27N AND W
OF 75W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AT
33N64W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
31N38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER S
FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N64W. TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N45W...AND NEAR 21N33W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA



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