[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

HURRICANE BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 52.1W AT 07/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 730 MILES...1175 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1150 MILES...1855 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO
120 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT AN EYE OF ROUGHLY 15 NM IN DIAMETER...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF ITS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEEP CONVECTION NOW SURROUNDS THE EYE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE WHILE MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27N77W 20N80W TO 8N80W MOVING WNW NEAR 20
KT. WAVE REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND EXTENDS FROM ERN PANAMA
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE NW BAHAMAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY
INDICATES AN INVERTED-V CURVATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W-85W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 75W-83W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W S OF 25N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
REMAINS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY SATELLITE
SIGNATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 93W-97W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 8N23W 6N45W 10N56W AND INTO
NE VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 14W-17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 21W-25W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
30N. 10-15 KT SELY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED. CLUSTERS OF AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND
OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 81W-83W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 93W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MAINLY NWLY FLOW W OF 87W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT
CONTINUED AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER N FLORIDA AND THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO W OF 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS
DOMINATE THE AREA. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA W OF GUADELOUPE FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
63W-66W. BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 83W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER W OVER EL
SALVADOR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N78W. ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BESIDES THE CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS N
TO THE BAHAMAS...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 72W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 28N. A 1027 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N63W. ANOTHER 1026 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N42W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N73W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N64W.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 19N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
22N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA



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