[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 45.1W AT 1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 1025 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT
18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT42
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
ENCOUNTER MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED W OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 44W-47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. NO ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...WITH ONLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 24N MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE
REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER
1034Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMS POSITION OF THE WAVE WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
68W-72W WHICH IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 25N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS MOVING UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE YUCATAN BASIN SOUTH OF WRN
CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 81W-85W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N26W 6N30W 9N40W 7N55W
12N69W AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO
ACROSS COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 15W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED ACROSS E CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO WRN CUBA AND BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL
MEXICO ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THIS RIDGING IS
PROVIDING PREDOMINANTLY W-NW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE
SWRN GULF AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE IN THE WRN GULF FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 92W-98W...
INCLUDING COASTAL S TEXAS FROM GALVESTON TO NEAR VERACRUZ
MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE NE GULF
AND WITHIN 120 NM OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE DUE TO THE
UPPER LOW. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE W ATLC COVERS MUCH OF THE NRN GULF KEEPING 10-20 KT
E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE SEA. THE
EASTERN ONE ALONG 70W/71W IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 70W-75W SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE OTHER WAVE ALONG
85W IS AIDING IN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE YUCATAN BASIN S OF WRN CUBA. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COASTAL
PANAMA TO 13N W OF 76W IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE ITCZ AXIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS KEEPING THE ERN
CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS DIFFLUENT OVER THE W ATLC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
WEAKENING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E OF THE UPPER LOW N OF CUBA ACROSS SRN
FLORIDA...THE ERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. E OF
77W A BROAD AMPLIFIED RIDGE COVERS THE REST OF THE W ATLC IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. FARTHER E...A LARGE UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NORTH OF
THE AREA NEAR 36N47W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING S TO NEAR 22N56W.
LARGE SCALE RIDGING HOLDS E OF THERE WITH AN UPPER HIGH
POSITIONED NEAR 19N36W. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N60W CONTINUES
TO HOLD RIDGING ACROSS THE W ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W/71W
PROVIDES ONLY WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS EXTENDING
NWD TO 27N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
ATLC...A QUASI-STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N38W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING MAINLY
MODERATE NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND KEEPING T.S. BERTHA ON
HER WESTWARD TRACK.

$$
HUFFMAN




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